737
FXUS61 KCTP 031109
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
609 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
* A COUPLE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
* A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN ON FRIDAY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THERE ARE JUST A FEW LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO PENNSYLVANIA
OVER TOP OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE
SUNRISE COULD BE RATHER VIBRANT ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
(AND ANYWHERE THERE AREN'T LOW CLOUDS BLOCKING THE SUNLIGHT).
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST WITH LOW 30S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
PA TURNPIKE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND BRING A PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA.
EARLIER THIS WEEK WE WERE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING
WITH A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST US, BUT THAT SYSTEM
HAS TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT, ONLY
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF IT WILL BE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. A FEW STREAMER BANDS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE I-81
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT, WITH A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING - IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME ACCUMULATION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTH OF I-80, WITH STREAMER BANDS ORIENTING WNW TO ESE AND
TAKING AIM AT NORTHEAST PA. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES,
WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTRA ATTENTION/WWAS. IN
FACT, MOST LOCATIONS WON'T SEE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.
WINDS WILL KICK UP JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 OR
20 MPH. CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE 20S TO 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO NORTHERN PA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHTER SNOW
AND BE CONFINED TO ONLY FAR NORTHERN PA. THIS WILL BE A VERY
QUICK SYSTEM WITH ANY ONE LOCATION ONLY SEEING SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. SNOWFALL ARRIVAL WILL BE BEFORE DAWN ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST PA AND IT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF THE PRECEDING
FEW MORNINGS, ENSURING PRECIPITATION ALL FALLS AS SNOW. ONCE
THAT WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
COME OUT OF THE SOUTH AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE. MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWEST PA TOWARD PITTSBURGH WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ADDED TO THE SOUTH WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP CENTRAL PA IN A COOL-AIR DAMMING TYPE PATTERN AND
LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UPPER RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY COUPLE DAYS, WITH RAIN AS THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE FIRST ONE WILL BE A COLORADO LOW TRACKING DUE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT ONSET IN NORTHEAST PA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE PLAIN
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GET INTO THE MID 50S SOUTH AND
LOW 40S NORTH BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES LATE WEEK WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS
BOTH FAVORING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SO FAR (AND
IS COMMON FOR A LA NINA WINTER), BUT A GOOD QUARTER INCH IS
PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF
THE RELATIVE WARMTH BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ECENS AND GEFS
GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE A GOOD BET FOR SOUTHERN PA AND
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ALL THE WAY UP TO I-80.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAF SET.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY. IPT, MDT, AND LNS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.
WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW.
MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE FROM EARLIER PACKAGES WAS TO EDGE
AWAY FROM HAVING CIGS QUITE AS LOW, BASED ON CURRENT OBS, AND
TRENDS LAST NIGHT AND SO FAR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN..LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W BRING REDUCTIONS AT BFD
AND JST, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE.
MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
CLIMATE
2025 CLOSED OUT WITH MANY SMALL SNOWFALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PA, BUT
IT WAS A MAINLY DRIER THAN NORMAL DEC.
THE YEARLY SUMMARIES SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MUCH NEAR
NORMAL WHEN SPREAD OUT THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE YEAR. JAN WAS
COLDER THAN NORMAL, THEN WE SWUNG TO WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
MARCH. AFTER A BRIEF COLD SHOT IN EARLY APRIL, WE REBOUNDED
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. MAY AND JUNE WERE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, BUT SOME RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
SHOWED UP IN LATE JUNE. JULY AND MUCH OF AUGUST WERE NEAR
NORMAL, BUT TEMPS DIPPED SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF AUG AND FIRST
PART OF SEPT. THE LATTER HALF OF SEPT WAS VERY MILD WITH A FEW
DAYS NEAR RECORDS. OCT AND NOV WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS, BUT
DEC WAS COLD. EXCEPT FOR ONE BIG SPIKE TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON
THE 19TH.
WE DID HAVE A VERY DRY START TO THE YEAR (AND LOW SNOWFALL
TOTALS) IN MUCH OF PA. THE EARLY DEFICITS LED TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR, DESPITE A FAIRLY CLOSE-TO-NORMAL
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST (LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS)) EARLY IN THE YEAR WERE LARGELY ERASED, BUT
THEN RETURNED/SHIFTED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE SUMMER AND SPREAD SLOWLY TO
COVER MUCH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE YEAR. STARTING IN EARLY DEC,
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN UNDER INTO A DROUGHT WATCH.
SEE THE ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARIES (CLA) FOR SOME DETAILED INFO
FOR EACH OF OUR FIVE LONG-TERM CLIMATE REPORTING STATIONS.
CLAMDT, CLAIPT, CLAAOO, CLABFD AND CLAJST.
MUCH MORE INFO INCLUDING DATA PLOT AND GRAPHS CAN BE MADE ON THE
FLY BY GOING TO: "WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE" AND CLICKING ON THE
"CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER" TAB JUST ABOVE THE FRONT-PAGE MAP.
THAT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE "NOWDATA" TAB. SELECT OPTIONS THERE TO
SEE A MYRIAD OF INFO ON PAST WEATHER AND HOW IT RELATES TO
LONG-TERM NORMALS. THE CURRENT PERIOD OF NORMALS IS THE 30 YEARS
FROM 1990-2020. WE HAVE A FEW SITES THAT HAVE DATA BACK MORE
THAN 120 YEARS (WILLIAMSPORT, HARRISBURG, AND STATE COLLEGE).
SOME DETAILED HISTORICAL SNOWFALL INFO, INCLUDING PAST SEASONAL
SNOW TOTAL MAPS, IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY GOING TO
"WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE/MOREWATER" AND CLICKING ON THE
"SNOWFALL INFO" TAB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO
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