460
FXUS61 KCTP 032330
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
* A COUPLE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
* A RAINY STORM LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK AND FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AND ALBERTA CLIPPER)
WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULTS WILL BE JUST A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG AND N OF I-80. QPF/SNOW LOOKS HIGHLY SIMILAR TO PRIOR
FCSTS AND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N. LOWER, BUT STILL
MEDIUM, CERTAINTY (60%) IS THERE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SHOULD JUST BE FLURRIES SOUTH OF
THERE (DOWN TO I-80 CORRIDOR) WITH NO ACCUM, OR PERHAPS A
DUSTING AT WORST. NORTHERN TIER PLACES SHOULD GET 1-2" OF FLUFF
(20:1 SLR). PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A
FEW DEGS FROM SAT MORNING IN THE ALLEGHENIES & LAURELS.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPS WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE TEMPS FROM 24 HRS
PRIOR. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREV FCSTS
AND YIELDS EQUALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT ASPECT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
FAST FLOW YIELDS ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH A BAND OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW AHEAD OF IT. THE PRECIP TIMING IS WELL-AGREED UPON BY MAN
AND MACHINE WITH SNOW GETTING TO WARREN/MCKEAN COS BEFORE
SUNRISE AND SLIDING QUICKLY EAST. THE SNOW SHOULD LIFT AWAY TO
THE NE BY NOON. IT DOES SEEM TO CARRY A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT THAN SAT NIGHT'S WAVE. BUT, IT IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO BE NEAR 1"
ALONG THE NY BORDER TAPERING TO NOTHING JUST S OF A STATE
COLLEGE TO BLOOMSBURG LINE. THE SUN SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE -
AT LEAST BREAKING THRU - IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTN.
MAXES OF 25-30F IN THE NE HILLS TO 40-43F IN SOMERSET CO REFLECT
THAT SUN/CLOUD FORECAST.
MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7-10F MILDER (20S) THAN THE SUN
NIGHT (TEENS) THANKS TO HIGHER TEMPS ALOFT, A LIGHT SSW WIND AND
THICKER CLOUDS RETURN TO MUCH OF PA MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN THIS PACKAGE. MAJOR
POINTS ARE THE BIG WARM UP. JUST A HINT OF DOUBT REMAINS IN THE
MIND OF MAN OVER THE SPEED OF THE WARM UP. BUT, THAT HINGES ON
HOW QUICKLY ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND GOES AWAY. NOT ENOUGH
DOUBT TO OVERRIDE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, THOUGH. REST IS AS
BELOW...
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UPPER RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION EVERY COUPLE DAYS, WITH RAIN AS THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE FIRST ONE WILL BE A COLORADO LOW TRACKING DUE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT ONSET IN NORTHEAST PA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE PLAIN
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GET INTO THE MID 50S SOUTH AND
LOW 40S NORTH BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES LATE WEEK WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS
BOTH FAVORING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SO FAR (AND
IS COMMON FOR A LA NINA WINTER), BUT A GOOD QUARTER INCH IS
PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF
THE RELATIVE WARMTH BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ECENS AND GEFS
GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE A GOOD BET FOR SOUTHERN PA AND
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ALL THE WAY UP TO I-80.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE MOIST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH VIRGA LIKELY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BFD IS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY (AND POSSIBLY CIGS) FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THE NIGHT. FOR JST, AOO, UNV, AND IPT, GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AT JST AND IPT,
WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTIONS AND LOW CIGS DECREASING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST), THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT
IPT AS THE SNOW FIRST STARTS.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY TO MDT AND LNS IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY 12Z, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...COLBERT/BAUCO
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