832
FXUS61 KCTP 040556
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
* A COUPLE QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY MID WEEK, ALONG WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
* A RAINY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WENT WITH THE
POPS WE HAD EARLIER. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SNOW FALLS APART
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PA. RETURNS ON THE RADAR MAKE THINGS LOOK MORE ACTIVE, BUT
MUCH OF THE SNOW IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WEAK AND FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AND ALBERTA CLIPPER)
WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULTS WILL BE JUST A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG AND N OF I-80. QPF/SNOW LOOKS HIGHLY SIMILAR TO PRIOR
FCSTS AND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N. LOWER, BUT STILL
MEDIUM, CERTAINTY (60%) IS THERE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SHOULD JUST BE FLURRIES SOUTH OF
THERE (DOWN TO I-80 CORRIDOR) WITH NO ACCUM, OR PERHAPS A
DUSTING AT WORST. NORTHERN TIER PLACES SHOULD GET 1-2" OF FLUFF
(20:1 SLR). PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A
FEW DEGS FROM SAT MORNING IN THE ALLEGHENIES & LAURELS.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPS WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE TEMPS FROM 24 HRS
PRIOR. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREV FCSTS
AND YIELDS EQUALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT ASPECT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AGAIN, WENT WITH THE POPS WE HAD FOR MONDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION SETS IN ON MONDAY. A SIMILAR EVENT SEVERAL WEEKS AGO
ON A MONDAY RESULTED IN THE WARM ADVECTION SNOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS HAD IT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FAST FLOW YIELDS ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH A BAND OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW AHEAD OF IT. THE PRECIP TIMING IS WELL-AGREED UPON BY MAN
AND MACHINE WITH SNOW GETTING TO WARREN/MCKEAN COS BEFORE
SUNRISE AND SLIDING QUICKLY EAST. THE SNOW SHOULD LIFT AWAY TO
THE NE BY NOON. IT DOES SEEM TO CARRY A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT THAN SAT NIGHT'S WAVE. BUT, IT IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO BE NEAR 1"
ALONG THE NY BORDER TAPERING TO NOTHING JUST S OF A STATE
COLLEGE TO BLOOMSBURG LINE. THE SUN SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE -
AT LEAST BREAKING THRU - IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTN.
MAXES OF 25-30F IN THE NE HILLS TO 40-43F IN SOMERSET CO REFLECT
THAT SUN/CLOUD FORECAST.
MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7-10F MILDER (20S) THAN THE SUN
NIGHT (TEENS) THANKS TO HIGHER TEMPS ALOFT, A LIGHT SSW WIND AND
THICKER CLOUDS RETURN TO MUCH OF PA MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME HINTS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THINGS WARM UP. AGAIN, ONLY SOME MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW,
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
EARLY ON DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A WARM UP BY
LATER IN THE WEEK. SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF LATELY.
MODELS SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD AS ONE HEADS FURTHER OUT IN TIME,
BOTH FROM DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE DAY TO DAY MODEL CYCLES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN THIS PACKAGE. MAJOR
POINTS ARE THE BIG WARM UP. JUST A HINT OF DOUBT REMAINS IN THE
MIND OVER THE SPEED OF THE WARM UP. BUT, THAT HINGES ON HOW
QUICKLY ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND GOES AWAY. NOT ENOUGH DOUBT
TO OVERRIDE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, THOUGH. REST IS AS BELOW...
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UPPER RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION EVERY COUPLE DAYS, WITH RAIN AS THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE FIRST ONE WILL BE A COLORADO LOW TRACKING DUE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT ONSET IN NORTHEAST PA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE PLAIN
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GET INTO THE MID 50S SOUTH AND
LOW 40S NORTH BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES LATE WEEK WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS
BOTH FAVORING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SO FAR (AND
IS COMMON FOR A LA NINA WINTER), BUT A GOOD QUARTER INCH IS
PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF
THE RELATIVE WARMTH BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ECENS AND GEFS
GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE A GOOD BET FOR SOUTHERN PA AND
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ALL THE WAY UP TO I-80.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE MOIST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH VIRGA LIKELY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BFD IS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY (AND POSSIBLY CIGS) FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THE NIGHT. FOR JST, AOO, UNV, AND IPT, GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AT JST AND IPT,
WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTIONS AND LOW CIGS DECREASING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST), THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT
IPT AS THE SNOW FIRST STARTS.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY TO MDT AND LNS IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY 12Z, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF/MARTIN
AVIATION...COLBERT/BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page