430
FXUS61 KCTP 050407
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1107 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
* IT MAY SNOW N OF ROUTE 6 EARLY THIS MORNING.
* PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING AN EARLY JANUARY THAW TO CPA WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE-SAT
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN ARE TUESDAY & FRIDAY/SATURDAY; BREEZY
CONDITIONS LATE WEEK FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN SUN/MON
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS STILL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, BUT AOO DID SCT OUT THIS LAST
OB. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, THOUGH. THE WEAK WAVE
HEADING FOR NY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON AM LOOKS EVEN MORE
MOISTURE-STRAVED THAN IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE SOME PCPN
MAY TRY TO REACH THE GROUND, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERE COULD
BE A SEEDER-FEEDER SET UP AS THE LIFT ALOFT WILL MAKE SOME SNOW
OUT OF IT, BUT THERE WILL HAVE TO BE HELP FROM THE CLOUD
LAYER(S) BELOW. EXPECT JUST A DUSTING BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE NRN
MTNS WITH POPS VERY LOW. TEMPS LOOKING GOOD AS IS.
SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
EVERYTHING SAID BELOW STANDS WELL. THE TREND OF SLOWING HAS
STOPPED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A POST-SUNRISE IF NOT A POST-
NOON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF PCPN IN THE NW. RISK FOR ICE/ZR IS VERY
LOW WITH A LATER START TIME. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTIONS OF ICE
ACCUMS WHICH WERE ONLY JUST A FEW PIXELS HERE AND THERE ANYWAY.
KEEPING THE MENTION FOR THE MORNING, THOUGH.
PREV...
BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE REST OF MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD
WITH MAX TEMPS +10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION SHIFTS UPSTREAM MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A SUB-1000MB SFC LOW FROM
CHICAGO TO BUFFALO. EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF WAA PRECIP, BUT WITH
MUCH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES. THE 04/12Z HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING; WHICH
SEEMS TO MESH WITH FCST SOUNDING PROFILES AROUND BFD SHOWING A
DRY LAYER ALOFT. IT APPEARS BY THE TIME PRECIP REACHES THE CWA
(CLOSER TO 18Z THAN 12Z, TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM AT THE
SFC TO SUPPORT MUCH ZR. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF ZR
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A
DECLINING RISK. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MTNS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW AS REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO RATCHET GUSTS HIGHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VERY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREV...
BREEZY START WEDNESDAY; OTHERWISE MILD AND DRYING OUT BUT
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU GET TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FCST TO BE 10-15F ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE IN THE 35-50F RANGE (NW-SE).
WARMING TREND RAMPS UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
THE PEAK OF THE EARLY JANUARY THAW. MAX TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY IN THE 45-55F
RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT AND HI PWATS SURGING
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDING LOW AND SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT.
BULK OF THE QPF IS FOCUSED OVER NW PA; THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT/ICE JAMS COULD RESULT IN
SOME MINOR FLOODING. RISK IS LOW, BUT SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED
IN THE COMING DAYS. ICE JAM RISK MAY BE ELEVATED ELSEWHERE DUE
TO MELTING SNOWPACK, INCREASED STREAMFLOWS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
STRETCH OF WARMTH.
BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO MEAN REVERT
AND COOL DOWN (BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) BACK TO LEVELS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-JANUARY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN IFR CEILINGS AT BFD AND JST, AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT AOO AND UNV. AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST ARE VFR.
THE STRATUS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ALL TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY BE VFR BY 15Z.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, WITH BFD
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (< 30 PERCENT) OF RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT IPT AND UNV
AS WELL. SNOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY 15Z AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
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