925
FXUS61 KCTP 051141
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
* CHANCE OF A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TODAY.
* PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING AN EARLY JANUARY THAW TO CPA WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE-SAT
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN ARE LATER TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
* COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME CHANCE FOR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
TODAY, BUT THE CHANCE HAS BEEN LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAN SEVERAL
DAYS AGO. WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
I DID ADJUST POPS UP A LITTLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, TO MATCH
UP BETTER. SOMETIMES PCPN JUMPS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, THEN
REFORMS A BIT MORE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST, PERHAPS PARTLY DUE
TO THE BLUE MTN RANGE. ALSO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO PICK UP
A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE BIG POND. EITHER WAY, NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE HOLDS OFF TO LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, THERE ARE STILL MODELS THAT SHOW SOME SMALL AREAS OF
QPF TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN A BIT LOWER NOW AT THE ONSET, BUT STILL
POSSIBLE, GIVEN SFC TEMPS EARLY ON. BULK OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
LATER IN THE DAY, TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA COULD WARM INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES FCST TO BE NEAR FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
MOST IF NOT ALL THE PCPN WOULD BE OVER WITH BY THEN. COLD
ADVECTION NOT REAL STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, BUT PULLS OUT
RATHER FAST, AND COLD ADVECTION LIMITED FOR OUR AREA, SO
OVERALL SITUATION NOT BAD FOR EARLY JANUARY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS NOTED ABOVE, COLD ADVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY NOT REAL
STRONG FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY, WITH A NICE BREAK FROM THE RECENT COLD.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
VERY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREV...
BREEZY START WEDNESDAY; OTHERWISE MILD AND DRYING OUT BUT
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU GET TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FCST TO BE 10-15F ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE IN THE 35-50F RANGE (NW-SE).
WARMING TREND RAMPS UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
THE PEAK OF THE EARLY JANUARY THAW. MAX TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY IN THE 45-55F
RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT AND HI PWATS SURGING
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDING LOW AND SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT.
BULK OF THE QPF IS FOCUSED OVER NW PA; THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT/ICE JAMS COULD RESULT IN
SOME MINOR FLOODING. RISK IS LOW, BUT SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED
IN THE COMING DAYS. ICE JAM RISK MAY BE ELEVATED ELSEWHERE DUE
TO MELTING SNOWPACK, INCREASED STREAMFLOWS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
STRETCH OF WARMTH.
BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO MEAN REVERT
AND COOL DOWN (BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) BACK TO LEVELS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-JANUARY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BFD MOST
LIKELY TO SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SNOW PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BY 15Z AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BFD AND MVFR LIKELY AT IPT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE (~30% CHANCE) AT
UNV, AOO, AND JST. LNS COULD EVEN SEE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page