208
FXUS61 KCTP 060400
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
* EARLY JANUARY THAW GETS UNDERWAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN: TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND
A GUSTY NW WIND THAT SHOULD HELP TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS 10-20F ABOVE
EARLY JANUARY CLIMO. DESPITE THE CLOUDY COVER, INCREASING LLVL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF
FOG ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. LIGHT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE REACHING
CHICAGO BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LATER ARRIVING/PRECIP ONSET ESSENTIALLY TAKES ZR RISK OFF THE
TABLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 10AM.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM CHICAGO TOWARD BUFFALO BY 00Z WED.
LIGHT QPF REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES WITH UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT HELPING TO BRING STEADIER LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE, LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF I81
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH -IF ANY- RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAX RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AROUND 0.25" OVER THE NW MTNS.
AS LIGHT RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO DZ/FZDZ OR SNIZZLE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW/ENHANCED LIFT WILL
PERSIST. NUDGED POPS HIGHER THAN NBM GUIDANCE TUES NIGHT INTO
WED AM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
12Z WED, EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS AS LLVL TEMP
ADVECTION BRIEFLY SWITCHES FROM +WARM TO -COLD AND 3HR SFC
PRESSURE RISES INCREASE TO 3-4MB/HR. ADJUSTED NBM WGUSTS HIGHER
INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WHICH LINES UP WITH BL MIXING POTENTIAL
SHOWN IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT GOAL-POST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER CPA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL TREND NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY COLDER FROM TUE
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN VERY MUCH ON THE MILD SIDE
(WELL ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WARMING TREND RAMPS UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRI/SAT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS/PEAK OF THE EARLY JANUARY THAW. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROJECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY IN THE 45-55F RANGE. DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER FOR MIN TEMPS. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY COULD
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER LASTS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY; A GREAT DAY TO
TAKE DOWN OUTDOOR HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. A FAIRLY WET PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE IN STORE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD SW FLOW
ALOFT AND HI PWATS SURGING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
OCCLUDING LOW AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BULK OF THE QPF IS AGAIN FOCUSED OVER NW PA; THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT/ICE JAMS COULD
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOW, BUT
SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. ICE JAM RISK MAY
BE ELEVATED ELSEWHERE DUE TO MELTING SNOWPACK, RISES ON
RIVERS/STREAMS AND INCREASED STREAMFLOWS ALL PERPETUATED BY THE
UNSEASONABLY MILD STRETCH OF WARMTH FOR EARLY JANUARY.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO MEAN REVERT AND COOL DOWN (BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT) BACK TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID JANUARY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ODDS FAVOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS PEAKING ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER NW FLOW TRIGGERING LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS FLOW IS VEERED AT LOW LEVELS WITH SPEEDS 30-40 KTS AT
2000 FT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BFD. LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT IPT AND OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS BY AROUND
DAYBREAK, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 40 PCT SO CURRENTLY
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, LIKELY GETTING INTO JST BY 10Z AND
AOO AND UNV BY 15Z. LOWER, BUT NONZERO CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (CIGS), LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND COLD
FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
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