038
FXUS61 KCTP 061112
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
* JANUARY THAW GETS UNDERWAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND
AND VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN: LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ON A
GUSTY NW WIND THAT SHOULD TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STACKED TROUGH & SFC LOW ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH, WARMER AIR WILL FLOW OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
ALOFT (3KFT) ABOUT 6C WARMER THAN AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. AS
FORCING/LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER 18Z, CLOSER TO 2
PM IN THE NW, AND PROBABLY AN HOUR BEFORE SUNSET IN JST-UNV-N38.
POPS SHOULD BE 100PCT FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. JST HAS
BEEN IN THE 40S ALL NIGHT THANKS TO THE WIND/WAA. THV IS CLEAR
AND CALM AND HAS DROPPED TO 10F COLDER THAN BFD AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT 8-17F ABOVE NORMAL (MOST 8-12F) ON MAXES TODAY THANKS TO
THE WARMER AIR JUST ALOFT MIXING DOWN LIKE IT ALREADY IS IN JST.
CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD ALL DAY, BUT SOME THINNESS TO THE HIGH
DECK IS EXPECTED. THICKEST & LOWEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE N.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FORECAST IS A HIGH PORTION OF CONTINUITY WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES DUE TO NEW BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE TREND OF LATER AFTN
ARRIVAL FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS IS NOW SOLID. WAA OVER
THE EASTERN COS COULD ACTUALLY MAKE SOME --RA THERE WHILE
PERHAPS SKIPPING RIGHT OVER SOME OF THE CENTRAL COUNTIES, ESP
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BUNCH. QPF STILL LOOKS LIKE ALMOST HALF AN
INCH OF LIQUID IN THE FAR NW WHERE THEY COULD USE THE
GROUNDWATER RECHARGE. THESE NUMBERS TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN A
TENTH AT AOO-SEG. AGAIN, HMZ-HGR-THV-MDT COULD (80%) HAVE JUST A
FEW SPRINKLES.
PREV...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY 12Z WED, EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS AS LLVL
TEMP ADVECTION BRIEFLY SWITCHES FROM +WARM TO -COLD AND 3HR SFC
PRESSURE RISES INCREASE TO 3-4MB/HR. ADJUSTED NBM WGUSTS HIGHER
INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WHICH LINES UP WITH BL MIXING POTENTIAL
SHOWN IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT GOAL-POST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER CPA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL TREND NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY COLDER FROM TUE
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN VERY MUCH ON THE MILD SIDE
(WELL ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE BIG WARM-UP IS STILL ON TRACK, BUT WE ARE A LITTLE SKEPTICAL
THAT THE WIDESPREAD 55-60F NUMBERS CAN HAPPEN ON FRI. CLOUDS
AND SHRA COULD KEEP MAXES IN THE 50-55F RANGE INSTEAD. AT THIS
POINT, ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE LOFTIER NUMBERS. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A HARSH CHANGE WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND LES LATE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
MENTIONED BY WPC ARE VISIBLE IN DIFF BETWEEN ECMWF (FASTER) AND
GFS FROPA. HOWEVER, AT THIS RANGE THE BLEND SHOULD BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. GRADIENT WINDS/GUSTS SUN COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE MACHINE SUGGESTS. BUT, THE TIDE TURNS AND WE'LL BE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL ON MAXES AGAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
PREV...
WARMING TREND RAMPS UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRI/SAT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS/PEAK OF THE EARLY JANUARY THAW. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROJECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY IN THE 45-55F RANGE. DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER FOR MIN TEMPS. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY COULD
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER LASTS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY; A GREAT DAY TO
TAKE DOWN OUTDOOR HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. A FAIRLY WET PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE IN STORE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD SW FLOW
ALOFT AND HI PWATS SURGING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
OCCLUDING LOW AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BULK OF THE QPF IS AGAIN FOCUSED OVER NW PA; THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT/ICE JAMS COULD
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOW, BUT
SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. ICE JAM RISK MAY
BE ELEVATED ELSEWHERE DUE TO MELTING SNOWPACK, RISES ON
RIVERS/STREAMS AND INCREASED STREAMFLOWS ALL PERPETUATED BY THE
UNSEASONABLY MILD STRETCH OF WARMTH FOR EARLY JANUARY.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO MEAN REVERT AND COOL DOWN (BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT) BACK TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID JANUARY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ODDS FAVOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS PEAKING ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER NW FLOW TRIGGERING LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOWER CONDITIONS HELD ON FOR A WHILE, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
IS CLEAR NOW. THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL, BUT NOT
MUCH FOG SO FAR.
ADDED A BIT MORE DETAIL FOR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY IN THE CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT, WHILE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS (VFR) PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
TODAY WILL START OFF DRY, BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH TIME,
AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
A BREEZE AT SPOTS LIKE JST WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, BUT WINDS
LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT MIDNIGHT, SO LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA DRYS OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME PCPN
COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR WEST ON WED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (CIGS), LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND COLD
FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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