134
FXUS61 KCTP 070559
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1259 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WHICH MAY
BECOME DENSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO UPSLOPE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS; DENSE FOG
RISK IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING
2) EARLY JANUARY THAW RAMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY;
MONITORING RIVER RISES FROM RAIN+SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM RISK
3) TURNING WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN
NY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK INTO A WELL DEFINED CAD PATTERN
(55@MGW/35@UNV AT 20Z) WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG/STRATUS SIGNAL EMERGING HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SWITCHES FROM WARM+ TO
COLD- LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WEST WIND. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A MIX/CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A SLUSHY COATING POSSIBLE BY
12Z WED. SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PEELS OFF. MAX WIND GUSTS
ARE FORECAST IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOG SHOULD ERODE IN THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE WIND PICKS
UP FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY SUN GIVING
WAY TO CLOUDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMING TREND REALLY TAKES
OFF WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS +10-20F ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
THU-SAT. CONDITIONS WILL TURN BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEAN QPF IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT AND
RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS; THIS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL ICE
JAMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IT'S BACK TO REALITY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
MAX WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY FCST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
06Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MUCH ON THE RADAR, ABOUT 2 BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE OFFICE HERE.
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND, WHILE FURTHER WEST A
GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT SITES LIKE JST.
OVERALL I DID NOT CHANGE A LOT, MAINLY LATER TODAY TO TRY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT.
ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST, AS
THE COLD AIR COMING IN LATER IS NOT THAT COLD.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FAR TONIGHT, CEILINGS HAVE BEEN STAYING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WITH MVFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AT-WORST MVFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHWEST PA SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT BFD AFTER 06Z. THE FORECAST
IS MOST TENUOUS IN SOUTHEAST PA WHERE SKIES COULD SCATTER/CLEAR
OUT RESULTING IN ANYTHING RANGING FROM VFR CONDITIONS TO LIFR
IF LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. THERE IS A 50-50% CHANCE THAT
MDT AND LNS SEE A PERIOD OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE EARLY MORNING.
A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVED IN EARLIER THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT BFD, JST, AOO, AND UNV. SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT -SHRA/DZ/FZDZ WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT BFD AND JST.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND COLD
FRONT SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF UNV.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/MARTIN/BAUCO
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