121
FXUS61 KCTP 080543
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE TO THE NW MTNS THROUGH THE EVENING
GIVEN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS
SITUATED OVER SNOWPACK/COLD GROUND. THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH
A LOWERING INVERSION SHOULD LOCK-IN LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH BUILDING WARMTH INTO THURSDAY
3) JANUARY THAW RAMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
15 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
3) PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DAMPEN THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; MONITORING RIVER RISES FROM RAIN, SNOWMELT
AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS
4) WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH MAX GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NOT MUCH GOING ON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
RATHER PERSISTENT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT OR TO THE NW OF
I99/US220. THE WIND WILL RELAX WITH CLEARING MOST LIKELY OVER
THE MID TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA. STILL EXPECT SOME EARLY DAY SUN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A STEADY ONSLAUGHT OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARRIVES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT & DAYTIME WARMTH CONTINUES TO
BUILD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PEAK OF THE EARLY JANUARY THAW WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE +15-25 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE; RECORD HI MIN TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS +25-35 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (QUESTION WILL
BE HOW COLD WILL IT BE AT 1159PM SATURDAY NIGHT?)
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERIODS OF RAIN STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; MEAN QPF
IS 0.25-0.75 INCHES. ELEVATED/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND COULD RESULT IN STORM TOTALS >1 INCH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL IN THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT AND TRAILING/OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVER RESPONSE TO THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT
(NO FLOODING FORECAST) AND WATCH FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
OCCLUDED FROPA OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
COLD SURGE FOR SUNDAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO CUT OFF PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A
SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW, PROMPTING LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. SNSQ PARAMETER SUGGESTS SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL CRANK UP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. CONTINUED TO
LEAN ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. A SEASONABLY, BUT SUBSTANTIAL AND VERY NOTICEABLE
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING 20-30 DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY NIGHT, PUNCTUATED BY A BLUSTERY
WIND CHILL.
THE PATTERN STABILIZES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY/MID JANUARY. ENSEMBLE DATA
SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FAVOR WINTER STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
06Z TAFS SENT. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE OVERNIGHT, GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION (00Z PIT
SOUNDING) FOR EXAMPLE. BEST CHANCE TO KEEP VFR CIGS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT MDT AND LNS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY, ONCE THE SUN COMES
UP.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY PICK UP,
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A STRONG SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES RESULTS IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
PA LATE THIS EVENING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BFD AND MVFR
AT JST, AOO, UNV, AND IPT, AND VFR AT MDT AND LNS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SOME
DEGRADATION POSSIBLE AT BFD (TO LIFR) AND JST (TO IFR). SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT IMPACTING ANY
AIRFIELDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS AT BFD
WHERE THE HREF SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, THOUGH BFD LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR IFR
THROUGH AROUND 18Z. HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND COLD
FRONT SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF UNV.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/MARTIN/BAUCO
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