384
FXUS61 KCTP 081751
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1251 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFINED ARRIVAL TIMING OF RAIN/SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO STARTING TO THINK ABOUT A POTENTIAL TEMP
BUST (FCST TOO WARM) ON SATURDAY WITH CAD LIKELY E.
KEY MESSAGES
1) JANUARY THAW CONTINUES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR...SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO ALMOST 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.
2) PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; MONITORING RIVER RISES
FROM RAIN, SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS
3) WINDY AND TURNING SEASONABLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH MAX GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH (LAURELS) AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
(N/W)
4) ONE (NORMAL) COLD DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING N AND A THICKENING STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THAT COULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE LOFTY GOALS WE HAVE SET. BUT, EVEN IF
THAT HAPPENS, THE MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS RIGHT NOW (3 AM) ARE ALREADY AT NORMAL MAXES
FOR THE DAY, SO WE'LL KEEP CONTINUITY AND HANG CLOSE TO BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES TODAY - WHICH ARE JUST A RATHER REGULAR
DIURNAL RISE OF 15-20F FROM MORNING MINS.
FRIDAY HOLDS A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD HELP THE TEMPS
GET EVEN WARM/MILDER. A 60F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE LAURELS - WHICH WOULD BE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL PA. NOT OFTEN YOU SAY THAT
KIND OF THING IN JANUARY. BUT, THE WARM AIR DOES COME IN ALOFT
FIRST, AND WORKS DOWN - MUCH LIKE IT DID WED NIGHT.
SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST BY FRI MORNING WITH A GRADIENT WIND
OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD RISE EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE RAIN/SHOWERS AND THICKER
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER (VS N & W) AND 8H TEMPS REACH +10C. THEY
WON'T BE CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES FOR THE 9TH (MOST IN THE 60S),
BUT STILL 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SFC LOW LIFTS INTO SWRN QUE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE STATE IS REALLY GOOD AND PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN
FOR THE NW HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY NARROW PLUME OF
1-1.25" PWAT IS ANTICIPATED. SOME INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT
(MAINLY ALOFT) AS THE PLUME MOVES THRU. SO, A RUMBLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, BUT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED T IF IT DOES OCCUR.
LLJET PEAKS AROUND 50KT (WESTERLY) AROUND 4-6KFT ALOFT OVER SRN
PA FRI AFTN. SOUTHERLY WIND WITH A LITTLE VEER WITH HEIGHT IN
THE LOWEST 3KFT IS USUALLY NOT A GUSTY SCENARIO FOR PA - AS THE
WARMER AIR USUALLY RIDES OVERHEAD, BUT THERE COULD BE (30% CHC)
SOME 30KT+ GUSTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH. QPF
TOPS OUT AT <0.25" FOR THE DAY ON FRI, CAUSING NO ALARM BELLS
TO RING.
AFTER THE COLDER/DRIER AIR PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MOISTURE RETURNS. WEAK TO MODERATE ASCENT IN
THE RR QUAD OF THE 150KT JET TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL FORCE
ADDITIONAL SHRA ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE S. THE
SFC LOW DRIVING THINGS ALONG WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CWA,
BUT A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE (1"+ PWAT) WILL RESIDE OVER SERN HALF OF THE CWA LONGER
(ALL DAY) DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST LIFT. QPF IN THE SE IS NEAR
1" BY THE TIME THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT NIGHT.
THE QPF TAPERS OFF TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN THE NW. AGAIN, NOT
NORMALLY ENOUGH TO SOUND THE KLAXONS. BUT, THERE IS ALREADY
SOME ICE ON THE AREA WATERWAYS, INCLUDING THE LOWER SUSQ. SO,
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF ICE FOR ICE JAM CONCERNS.
ADDENDUM: THE WARM AIR MAY HAVE TROUBLE DISPLACING THE JUST
RECENTLY-ARRIVED COLD AIR. EASTERLY LLVL FLOW AND HIGH LLVL
STABILITY IN THE E USUALLY MEANS THE COLD AIR IS DAMMED UP, AND
THIS WILL POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS DOWN FROM THE GOING FCST. WE
HAVE NUDGED THE MAXES DOWN A FEW DEGS FROM GUIDANCE TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS. THAT DIFFERENCE SHOWS UP MOST IN THE
NE AND POCONOS, AND SOMEWHAT IN THE LOWER SUSQ - BUT THE MORE
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THERE IN THE SE WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM A
LITTLE COOLER ANYWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST. HIGH CONTINUITY ON TIMING OF
THE FROPA SAT NIGHT AND THE MUCH COLDER AIR.
QUITE A WIDE (300SM) DRY SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE DRY SLOT STARTS TO
BECOME WELL-ALIGNED (WSW) AND WE COULD START TO SEE GUSTS INTO
THE 30S IN THE W BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. AS THIS WELL-ALIGNED
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND WE MIX MORE-DEEPLY, WE COULD TAP
THE 40+KT WINDS UP AROUND 5KFT AND MAKE GUSTS INTO THE 40S IN
THE LAURELS AND 20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE SHOULD BE A
SECONDARY CFROPA ON SUNDAY, AND WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY, TOO. THUS, WE'LL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
STRONGER SHSN/SNSQ IN THE LATE AM AND AFTN. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ONLY A SHORT TIME OF FAVORABLE
FETCH FOR NW PA IN BETWEEN THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT
AND A THIRD BATCH OF DRIER AIR. SO, LES SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. BUT, THAT'S JUST BEYOND THE QPF/SNOW FORECAST TIME
HORIZON (DAY 3).
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THAT FINAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR LATER SUNDAY WILL ALSO NOT LAST
LONG. 8H TEMPS DO DROP TO ABOUT -13C ON MONDAY, BUT THE LAKES
WILL BE MODIFYING THE COLDEST AIR FOR US, AND CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO LOW/COLD. OVERALL, TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY NORMAL FOR MID-JAN ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THE BROAD HIGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
HELP KEEP US DRY TUES, AND THE TEMPS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NEXT STORM WILL ROLL IN ON THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR
TUES NIGHT. THAT STORM SHOULD HOLD A MIX OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA
WITH PERHAPS WET SNOW N, AND SHRA IN THE S. TEMPS STILL LOOK
ABOVE NORMAL ON WED, SO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TYPE IS A
GIVEN AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
APPROACH BFD AND JST IN THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME, GRADUALLY
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A 40 TO 55 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND
COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF UNV.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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