200
FXUS61 KCTP 091027
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY HAVE BEEN CUT DOWN BY ~10 DEGREES
THANKS TO AN EMERGING COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN; THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER RESULT WILL BE A RATHER UNPLEASANT/CHILLY AND WET START
TO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST;
TAPERING OFF LATE. MUCH COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
2) TRENDING COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX GUSTS 35-45 MPH PUSHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS
3) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH SUNRISE/DAYBREAK TEMPS ABOVE
THE AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN MOST
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF CPA). PERIODS OF RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT OR ALONG A HIGH PWAT/LLJ AXIS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" THROUGH 7PM. THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
MIGRATE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LULL/BREAK IN RAIN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SETTING UP A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
PATTERN. HIRES MODELS SHOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP RETURNING
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
UNPLEASANT/CHILLY/DANK START TO THE WEEKEND. NAM/HREF MAY BE TOO
COLD? IN THIS SCENARIO DEPICTING FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN RIDGETOPS. RAIN TOTALS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER THAN TODAY (FRIDAY) WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT FROM THE ONGOING/EARLY JANUARY THAW WILL CAUSE RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS; WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG LLVL CAA/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES PROMOTING DEEP BL MIXING WITH MAX GUSTS LIKELY REACHING
INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. HIGHER GUSTS >45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA BY 7AM SUNDAY BEHIND
THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A COLDER/MORE SEASONAL WNW
FLOW REGIME THAT WILL DRIVE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FROM
0.5-2.0" IN THE FAVORED NW SNOWBELTS AND LAUREL RIDGETOPS.
GFS/NAM FCST SNSQ PARAMETER INDICATES A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BLUSTERY WINDS, SLIPPERY ROADS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN US. MODERATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TREND COLDER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 515 AM, NOT MUCH ON THE RADAR. STILL EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY.
WIND SHIFT LINE (FRONT) COMES RATHER FAST LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, CIGS NOT THAT BAD. STILLL
CAME IN AROUND 11 PM, WAS 37 DEGREES OUTSIDE THE OFFICE HERE,
THEN IT JUMPED TO 45 DEGREES AS OF MIDNIGHT. NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS STILL AROUND 10,000 FT.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER 00Z TAF PACKAGE. MAIN
THING WAS TO ADJUST WINDS A BIT, GUSTY ACROSS THE FAR WEST,
WHILE CALM AND COLD ACROSS THE EAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
APPROACH BFD AND JST IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME, GRADUALLY
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A 40 TO 55 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD
WEAKEN/FIZZLE OUT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE LINE TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
LINE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS WITH A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN AND
COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT.
SUN...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF UNV.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/MARTIN/BAUCO
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