107
FXUS61 KCTP 091925
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO CENTRAL PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY CLEARING WILL DETERMINE WHERE FOG DEVELOPS.
COOL AND WET ON SATURDAY.
2) TRENDING COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX GUSTS 35-45 MPH PUSHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS.
3) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
LARGELY IN THE 40S WHILE A FEW LOCALES IN THE LAURELS SIT IN THE
50S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL PA.
TRANSIENT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY, PROVIDING A LULL/BREAK IN RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHILE SETTING UP A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE PATTERN. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET, BUT THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLEARING WILL
DETERMINE LONGEVITY AND PLACEMENT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
OVERRUNNING PRECIP RETURNING NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER UNPLEASANT/CHILLY/DANK START TO
THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR THE NORTHERN TIER INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, BUT 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH DIURNALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY THREAT BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS
FALLING. RAIN TOTALS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY (FRIDAY) WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH
RANGE. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT FROM THE
ONGOING/EARLY JANUARY THAW WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS; WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. HIGHER GUSTS >45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA BY 7AM SUNDAY BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A COLDER/MORE SEASONAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL DRIVE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST FROM 0.5-2.0" IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS AND
LAUREL RIDGETOPS. GFS/NAM FCST SNSQ PARAMETER INDICATES A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN MTNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BLUSTERY WINDS,
SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN US. MODERATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TREND COLDER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
18Z UPDATE... MOSTLY MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRUDGE ACROSS PA FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
GOES BY, WE ANTICIPATE AN END TO THE LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, LOWER
CEILINGS (FUEL ALTERNATE, OR PERHAPS IFR), DUE TO UPSLOPE W-NW
FLOW, SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES (KJST AND KBFD).
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
FARTHER EAST, HOWEVER, THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION, AS
WELL AS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY CORRIDOR (KAOO, KUNV, KIPT,
KMDT, AND KLNS), ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRYING (WITH DOWNSLOPING W-NW
FLOW HELPING) COULD SET IN TO PROMOTE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD SUCH CLEARING DEVELOP, IT BEGS THE
QUESTION WHETHER FOG WILL FORM OR NOT. IT WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION AND DAMP GROUND
CONDITIONS/SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONFIDENCE IN BOTH CLEARING
SKIES AND FOG FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW (20-40%) AND HOPEFULLY
WE'LL BE ABLE TO NAIL THIS DOWN MORE IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THUS, WE HAVE GENERALLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (LOWER CEILINGS AND THE RE-EMERGENCE OF
LIGHT RAIN) WITH TIME, PARTICULARLY AFTER 13-15Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF KBFD AND KJST.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE INTO WED...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...GUSEMAN/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...GUSEMAN/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...GUSEMAN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUREWICZ
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