524
FXUS61 KCTP 100757
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
2) TRENDING COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX GUSTS 35-45 MPH PUSHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS.
3) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE
FOG WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP RETURNING NORTHWARD BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER UNPLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE HREF,
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, BUT 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH DIURNALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY THREAT BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS
FALLING. RAIN TOTALS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN
THEY WERE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50
INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT FROM
THE ONGOING/EARLY JANUARY THAW WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS; WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL PA BY 7AM
SUNDAY BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A COLDER/MORE SEASONAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL DRIVE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST FROM 0.5-2.0" IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS AND
LAUREL RIDGETOPS. GFS/NAM FCST SNSQ PARAMETER INDICATES A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN MTNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BLUSTERY WINDS,
SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN US. MODERATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TREND COLDER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OUTLINE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
OUTLINE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AT BFD/JST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY TAPER DOWN AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO TRUCK
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FORMATION CLOSE TO BFD; HOWEVER, QUESTION
REMAINS ON IF FOG FORMATION OCCURS LOW ENOUGH ON THE RIDGETOPS
SURROUNDING THE AIRFIELD. RAINFALL TRACKING OVER THE AIRFIELD
RECENTLY IS A TIP TOWARDS THE RIGHT DIRECTION; HOWEVER, IF WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING, A SOLUTION
FAVORING HIGH-END IFR IS PLAUSIBLE TO WIN OUT. MAIN TIMING OF
FOG CONCERNS WOULD COME IN THE 06-10Z TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT LONGER DURATION LIFR CONDITIONS IF FOG DOES MANAGE TO
SETTLE OVER THE AIRFIELD. FURTHER SOUTH, LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FOG
FORMATION AT JST AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT OF BFD.
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, RAINFALL HAS TRACKED EAST OF
THE REGION WITH IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT MDT/LNS. A
COMBINATION OF RAP/GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
FAVORABLE CHANCES (> 80%) FOR IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE 02Z-04Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. PROGRESSING PAST 04Z, ODDS TIP
TOWARDS FAVORING VFR CONDITIONS (BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 04-05Z) AT MDT/LNS WITH SOME EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OUTLINED ON HREF/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ~15-17Z SATURDAY (60-70%
CONFIDENCE) BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRING RAINFALL NORTHWARDS
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS RAINFALL ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA SOUTH-TO-NORTH, EXPECT WIDESPREAD DETERIORATION
IN FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS BETWEEN RECENT RAP/GLAMP/HREF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (> 70%
CONFIDENCE) AFTER A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WITHIN RAINFALL. LIFR REMAINS MOST PLAUSIBLE BASED ON RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE AT MDT/LNS WHERE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE. LLWS CONCERNS ALSO BEGIN TO BE INTRODUCED AFTER 20Z
SATURDAY; HOWEVER, BASED ON RECENT NBM/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
DECIDED TO LIMIT MENTIONS TO BFD DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30-40%)
CONFIDENCE IN LLWS CRITERIA BEING MET AT THE AIRFIELD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED, MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KBFD AND KJST.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING
WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BAUCO
AVIATION...NPB
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