379
FXUS61 KCTP 101808
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
108 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
2) TRENDING COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX GUSTS 35-45 MPH PUSHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS.
3) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP RETURNING NORTHWARD BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER UNPLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE HREF,
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, BUT 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH DIURNALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY THREAT BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS
FALLING. RAIN TOTALS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN
THEY WERE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50
INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT FROM
THE ONGOING/EARLY JANUARY THAW WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS; WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL PA BY 7AM
SUNDAY BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A COLDER/MORE SEASONAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL DRIVE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST FROM 0.5-2.0" IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS AND
LAUREL RIDGETOPS. GFS/NAM FCST SNSQ PARAMETER INDICATES A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN MTNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BLUSTERY WINDS,
SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN US. MODERATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TREND COLDER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ENDING THIS MIDDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRING
RAINFALL NORTHWARDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS
RAINFALL ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH-TO-NORTH, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD DETERIORATION IN FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN RECENT RAP/GLAMP/HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
(> 70% CONFIDENCE) AFTER A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITHIN RAINFALL. LIFR REMAINS MOST
PLAUSIBLE BASED ON RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AT MDT/LNS WHERE AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. LLWS CONCERNS ALSO BEGIN TO
BE INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED, MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KBFD AND KJST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING
WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSS NW, VFR SE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BAUCO
AVIATION...NPB/RXR
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