806
FXUS61 KCTP 101822
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
* WIND ADVISORY FOR LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
* 7-DAY FORECAST VARIABLES (SNOWFALL, WINDS, TEMPERATURES,
ETC.) UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
0.25-0.75" EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
2) TRENDING COLDER TONIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON SUNDAY, WITH
MAX GUSTS 35-50 MPH PUSHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS.
3) SNOW ACCUMULATION /AND POSSIBLY A FEW SQUALLS/ EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL. A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD EVEN MAKE IT INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN IS ON TRACK, AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A DAMP AND RAW
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST PLACES SEEING STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.
THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT FROM THE ONGOING/EARLY
JANUARY THAW WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS; WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT, USHERING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY ON SUNDAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WILL DRIVE LAKE-EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE RIDGES OF SOMERSET COUNTY COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS. THEREFORE, HAVE
POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMERSET COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS, A COATING UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
MODEL SNSQ PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE. TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS, SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTN.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN US. MODERATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TREND COLDER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ENDING THIS MIDDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRING
RAINFALL NORTHWARDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS
RAINFALL ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH-TO-NORTH, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD DETERIORATION IN FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN RECENT RAP/GLAMP/HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
(> 70% CONFIDENCE) AFTER A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITHIN RAINFALL. LIFR REMAINS MOST
PLAUSIBLE BASED ON RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AT MDT/LNS WHERE AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. LLWS CONCERNS ALSO BEGIN TO
BE INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED, MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KBFD AND KJST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MON...A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, GIVING
WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSS NW, VFR SE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-
025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO/EVANEGO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO/EVANEGO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO/EVANEGO
AVIATION...NPB/RXR
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