894
FXUS61 KCTP 280550
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* WATCHING SNOW SQUALLS JUST WEST OF PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
* LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND WEST, COATING TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, WHERE A COATING TO ONE INCH COULD FALL.
2) LONG DURATION EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE END OF
JANUARY INTO GROUNDHOG DAY.
3) POTENTIAL EAST COASTAL STORM THREAT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. HARD TO SEE ON THE RADAR, GIVEN HOW
DRY AND COLD THE AIRMASS IS. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE SNOW CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WILL
MAKE FOR A HAZY LOOK TO THE SKY AT TIMES, EVEN WHEN NOT MUCH IS
FALLING ONTO THE GROUND.
ALSO WATCHING SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WEST OF PA EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT THESE ARE WEAKING SO FAR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE BANDS OF SNOW NOTED, WHICH WOULD AID IN THE WEAKENING
TREND.
AGAIN, GREATEST ACCUMS OF SNOW OVERNIGHT (UP TO ONE INCH) WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ONLY A LIGHT
COATING IN THE VALLEYS BETWEEN I-99 AND RT 15.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LONG DURATION EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH
THE END OF JANUARY INTO GROUNDHOG DAY
EXTREME COLD HAS STAYING POWER THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY INTO
EARLY FEBRUARY. A COLD WX ADVISORY (MIN WCS 10 TO 15 BELOW)
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST PERIOD IS
YET TO COME LATER THIS WEEK (THU NIGHT-AM SATURDAY) WITH DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS LIKELY
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CPA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 FORECAST
CYCLES. THE COLD CONTINUES INTO FEBRUARY WITH MAX TEMPS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH GROUNDHOG
DAY. CPC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: POTENTIAL EAST COASTAL STORM THREAT THIS WEEKEND
EYES CONTINUE TO MONITOR COASTAL STORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM
TRACK WHICH DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
ONSHORE SNOW POTENTIAL. FWIW THE LATEST NBM BRINGS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR WEST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH ODDS FOR
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONFINED ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND COAST.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BELOW.
VERY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH REINFORCED SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ROUNDS OF TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
ALLEGHENIES. INTERMITTENT FLURRIES WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. INCREASING GREAT
LAKES ICE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
OR PERHAPS SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODERATE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THESE WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT DAYTIME WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10KTS WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15KTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SURISE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS (KBFD AND KJST).
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH 12Z AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/27
MDT: 2 IN 1936
AOO: -2 IN 2022
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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