700
FXUS61 KCTP 280800
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY
2) LOW RISK OF PLOWABLE SNOW/MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND
3) EXTREME COLD RETREATS BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO FEBRUARY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
END OF JANUARY
EXTREME COLD HAS STAYING POWER THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY. A
COLD WX ADVISORY (MINIMUM WCS 10 TO 15 BELOW) REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10AM THIS MORNING. A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS YET TO COME WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPS FCST LATER THIS WEEK FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AM SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL COLD WX HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD OF COLDEST/LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPS
AND WIND CHILLS.
THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FEBRUARY WITH MAX TEMPS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH GROUNDHOG
DAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE EXTREME COLD WILL RETREAT, ODDS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND COASTAL
STORM TRACK WHICH DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
ONSHORE SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LATEST NBM PROBS ALONG WITH WPC
WSSI-P CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW RISK 10-20% FOR PLOWABLE
>2" SNOW AND MINOR WINTER WX IMPACTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR. ODDS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS REMAIN CONFINED ALONG
THE CAROLINA/DELMARVA/NJ/NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION:
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH REINFORCED
SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR (850MB TEMPS -18 TO -24C ARE BELOW THE 10TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW ALLEGHENIES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO EXTEND
INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. RECENT
GREAT LAKES ICE COVER ANALYSIS FROM GLERL/NIC SHOWS 100%
CONCENTRATION ON LAKE ERIE, SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS AS MEAN LLVL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WNW TO NNW BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODERATE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THESE WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT DAYTIME WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10KTS WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15KTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS (KBFD AND KJST).
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH 12Z AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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