839
FXUS61 KCTP 282325
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE END OF
JANUARY.
2) LOW RISK OF PLOWABLE SNOW/MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE FAR SE PART OF THE CWA.
3) EXTREME COLD RETREATS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
END OF JANUARY.
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY WINDS COULD KEEP THESE DEEPLY COLD WIND
CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS YET TO COME WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPS FCST LATER THIS WEEK FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AM
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL COLD WX HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD OF COLDEST/LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS.
THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FEBRUARY WITH MAX TEMPS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH GROUNDHOG
DAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE EXTREME COLD WILL RETREAT, ODDS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND COASTAL
STORM TRACK WHICH DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
ONSHORE SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LATEST NBM PROBS ALONG WITH WPC
WSSI-P CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW RISK 10-20% FOR PLOWABLE
>2" SNOW AND MINOR WINTER WX IMPACTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR. ODDS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS REMAIN CONFINED ALONG
THE CAROLINA/DELMARVA/NJ/NEW ENGLAND COAST. STARK DISAGREEMENTS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROLONG THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: EXTREME COLD RETREATS BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO FEBRUARY.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT TO
BRING THE AREA OUT OF RISK FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING
HOWEVER. PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY COULD SEE
HIGHS REACH THE MID 30S, BUT THIS STILL WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED WITH LONG RANGE
MODELS PAINTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR REINFORCING COLD FRONTS TO
ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z GFS AND EC SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW BY 240 HOURS, WITH THE EC MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION:
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH REINFORCED
SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR (850MB TEMPS -18 TO -24C ARE BELOW THE 10TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW ALLEGHENIES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO EXTEND
INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. RECENT
GREAT LAKES ICE COVER ANALYSIS FROM GLERL/NIC SHOWS 100%
CONCENTRATION ON LAKE ERIE, SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS AS MEAN LLVL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WNW TO NNW BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT BFD AND JST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF UNV AND AOO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS MAY
EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS AT UNV AND AOO TOWARDS 12Z.
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
SUN...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PA. BREEZY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ017-024-
033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/MARTIN/BOWEN
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN/BOWEN
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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