022
FXUS61 KCTP 290837
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING
* ODDS FOR PLOWABLE SNOW/WINTER DRIVING IMPACTS TREND LOWER AND
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF US-15 AND I-81
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY
2) LOW TO DECLINING RISK OF PLOWABLE SNOW/MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
3) EXTREME COLD RETREATS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO FEBRUARY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED EXTREME COLD/WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
END OF JANUARY
THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PEAK OF THE "ELITE" COLD IS APPROACHING WITH RECORD
CHALLENGING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT/AM SATURDAY. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS (OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS OR WIND CHILLS) GETTING CLOSE
TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE INTO THE LATE
INNINGS OF THE PROLONGED EXTREME COLD PERIOD WHICH SHOULD END
AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW TO DECLINING RISK OF PLOWABLE SNOW/MINOR
WINTER DRIVING IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT PLOWABLE/IMPACTFUL SNOW (>2" FOOTPRINT)
WILL NOT IMPACT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BASED ON THE LATEST NBM AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE PORTFOLIOS. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
KEEP THIS AREA SNOW-FREE WHILE WPC/NBM/NBMV5 DATA INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COATING TO LESS THAN 1" AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE BROADER/HEAVIER SNOWS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. ODDS FOR BOTH MINOR AND MODERATE WINTER
WEATHER/DRIVING IMPACTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOWER AND SHIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
(WSSI-P).
KEY MESSAGE 3: EXTREME COLD RETREATS, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO FEBRUARY.
RISK OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES COMES OFF THE TABLE ON MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT - BUT REMAIN BELOW THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY. THE RUN OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (CONSECUTIVE DAYS <32F) ROLLS ON ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF CPA.
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION:
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH REINFORCED
SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR (850MB TEMPS -18 TO -24C ARE BELOW THE 10TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW ALLEGHENIES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO EXTEND
INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. RECENT GREAT LAKES ICE COVER
ANALYSIS FROM GLERL/NIC SHOWS 100% CONCENTRATION ON LAKE ERIE,
SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS AS MEAN LLVL FLOW SHIFTS FROM WNW TO NNW BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW WEAK TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT BFD AND JST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
(WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBFD) WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
SEES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS (ALBEIT WITH LOW END VFR BKN- OVC
CIGS AT KUNV AND KAOO).
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (AND FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS THURSDAY (WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
I-99), WHILE MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY SEES SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS MAY EXPAND ON OCCASION NEAR AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS AT UNV AND AOO TOWARDS 12Z.
WEST TO WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM KUNV TO KJST
O PICK BACK UP AGAIN AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
SUN...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PA. BREEZY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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