612
FXUS61 KCTP 292014
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL
NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND
WILL NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS APPROACHING WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT/AM
SATURDAY. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS (OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS OR WIND CHILLS) GETTING CLOSE
TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE INTO THE LATE INNINGS OF THE PROLONGED EXTREME
COLD PERIOD WHICH SHOULD END AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM
THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. 29/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH KEEP THIS AREA SNOW-FREE WHILE NBMV5 PROB >1" HAS DROPPED
TO LESS THAN 10 EVEN IN LANCASTER COUNTY, THE MAX IN OUR CWA
(DOWN FROM 20 PCT YESTERDAY).
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY, THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AT BFD AND JST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MAINLY BE VFR. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT BFD OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING AT JST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS, BUT THERE IS A LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT
MDT AND LNS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
SUN...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PA. BREEZY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BFD AND
JST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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