840
FXUS61 KCTP 292355
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL
NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND
WILL NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS APPROACHING WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT/AM
SATURDAY. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS (OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS OR WIND CHILLS) GETTING CLOSE
TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE INTO THE LATE INNINGS OF THE PROLONGED EXTREME
COLD PERIOD WHICH SHOULD END AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM
THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA.
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. 29/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH KEEP THIS AREA SNOW-FREE WHILE NBMV5 PROB >1" HAS DROPPED
TO LESS THAN 10 EVEN IN LANCASTER COUNTY, THE MAX IN OUR CWA
(DOWN FROM 20 PCT YESTERDAY).
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY, THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS, A NORTHWEST FLOW OF VERY
COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF VERY THIN CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH FLURRIES, ESP. LATE
AS THE AIRMASS COOL. MOST LIKELY SPOTS FOR THIS WILL BE BFD
AND JST, BUT ALSO POSSIBLE AT UNV AND AOO. FURTHER EAST I
EXPECT HIGHER CLOUDS AND LESS CHANCE FOR THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY.
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
SOME CHANCE OF MORE THIN CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT, GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WEEKEND LOOKING TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY, BUT EXPECT WINDS TO PICK
UP ON SUNDAY, AS INTENSE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH.
LIKE SEVERAL MONDAY'S SO FAR THIS SEASON, WARM ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE,
CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
SUN...AROUND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT
LNS EARLY, OTHERWISE DRY. BECOMING WINDY, ESP. AT MDT
AND LNS.
MON...INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
TUE...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW EARLY AT BFD AND
JST, BUT MAINLY DRY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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