140
FXUS61 KCTP 300900
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED 7PM THIS EVENING TO 10AM SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
2) WINDY START TO FEBRUARY
3) ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY 2/4
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS APPROACHING WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT/AM SATURDAY. WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
(OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OR WIND CHILLS) GETTING CLOSE
TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE INTO THE LATE INNINGS OF
THE PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD EVENT WHICH WILL COME TO AN END BY
GROUNDHOG DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MODERATE A BIT NEXT
WEEK, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CPA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WINDY START TO FEBRUARY
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY, THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA. A BRISK AND COLD START TO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY 2/4
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
(1-3") ON WEDNESDAY FEB. 4TH. GEFS/EPS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE AI
ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTH/SOUTH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING/SPEED THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM, BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR WINTER WEATHER/TRAVEL IMPACTS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS, A NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY
COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF VERY THIN CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AT TIMES, SINCE MUCH OF
THIS CLOUD LAYER RESIDES WITHIN THE FAVORABLE THERMAL ZONES FOR
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS AND OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE BFD AND JST (WHERE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
CLIMBS TO BETWEEN 6-7 KFT AGL), BUT ALSO POSSIBLE AT UNV AND
AOO. FURTHER EAST, HIGHER CLOUD BASES WILL OCCUR WITH LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF MORE THIN CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY, BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP ON SUNDAY, AS AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA AND CAROLINA COAST.
LIKE SEVERAL MONDAY'S SO FAR THIS SEASON, WARM ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE, CHILLY AND BREEZY AREAWIDE.
SUN...AROUND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT
LNS EARLY, OTHERWISE DRY. BECOMING WINDY, ESP. AT MDT
AND LNS.
MON...INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
TUE...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW EARLY AT BFD AND
JST, BUT MAINLY DRY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT JANUARY:
01/30
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page