461
FXUS61 KCTP 301917
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED 7PM THIS EVENING TO 10AM SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
2) WINDY START TO FEBRUARY
3) ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY 2/4
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS APPROACHING WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT/AM SATURDAY. WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
(OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OR WIND CHILLS) GETTING CLOSE
TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE INTO THE LATE INNINGS OF
THE PROLONGED HAZARDOUS COLD EVENT WHICH WILL COME TO AN END BY
GROUNDHOG DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MODERATE A BIT NEXT
WEEK, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CPA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WINDY START TO FEBRUARY
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY, THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA. A BRISK AND COLD START TO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY 2/4
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
(1-3") ON WEDNESDAY FEB. 4TH. GEFS/EPS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE AI
ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTH/SOUTH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING/SPEED THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM, BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR WINTER WEATHER/TRAVEL IMPACTS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COMBINATION OF NBM/GLAMP/HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION MENTIONS BEING NIXED IN THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 31/18Z. RESTRICTIONS REMAIN MOST PROBABLE
AT BFD/JST THROUGH 31/18Z WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING,
RESPECTIVELY. SOME PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE (~30-40%) AT JST
BETWEEN 09-12Z, THUS HAVE OUTLINED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND 12Z SAT) BASED ON RECENT HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, GIVEN CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS COUPLED WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SNOW STAYS SE OF THE AREA, LESS THAN 10% SNOW AT LNS. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
TUE...SNOW ACROSS N/W PA LATE, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED...SNOW CONTINUES OVERSPREADING THE AREA, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD-CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT
JANUARY:
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPS
MDT: 13 IN 1934
IPT: 12 IN 1934
AOO: 11 IN 1966
BFD: -1 IN 1977
STC: 12 IN 1977
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31)
FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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