550
FXUS61 KCTP 310240
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
940 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS UPON US WITH RECORD CHALLENGING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/AM SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL PA, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT -10F OR COLDER. BASED ON MOST
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND USING YESTERDAY EVENING AS A PROXY,
HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN CENTRE,
SOMERSET, AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES, WHERE WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSER TO -20F ACROSS APPROXIMATELY HALF OF
THESE AREAS. LOWER ELEVATIONS PLACES ARE LIKELY TO TREND
SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS; HOWEVER, COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. THE INCREASING
WINDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY
NIGHT, WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -10F FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN -20F IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THIS THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (1-3") ON WEDNESDAY FEB 4 WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
CENTRAL PA DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN MOST PROBABLE AT BFD/JST THROUGH 01/00Z
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, RESPECTIVELY. SOME PERIODS
OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE (~30-40%) AT JST BETWEEN 09-12Z SATURDAY,
THUS HAVE OUTLINED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE BUT
HONED IN ON TIMES WHERE THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND 12Z SAT) BASED ON RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST, GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS COUPLED WITH
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HREF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME CLOUD
THICKENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PACKAGE, THUS HAVE
OUTLINED LOWER CLOUDS (STILL VFR) AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND INTO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SNOW STAYS SE OF THE AREA, LESS THAN 10% SNOW AT LNS. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
TUE...SNOW ACROSS N/W PA LATE, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED...SNOW CONTINUES OVERSPREADING THE AREA, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD-CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT
JANUARY:
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPS
MDT: 13 IN 1934
IPT: 12 IN 1934
AOO: 11 IN 1966
BFD: -1 IN 1977
STC: 12 IN 1977
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31)
FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ018-024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT/NPB
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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