508
FXUS61 KCTP 310957
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA
* AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA (EXCEPT FOR WARREN COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS UPON US WITH RECORD CHALLENGING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (ACROSS THE SOUTH) AND AGAIN
TONIGHT/AM SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH
HAS ACTING AS A THIN BLANKET AND EFFECTIVELY ENDED THE THREAT
FOR WARNING/ADVISORY COLD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
WIND CHILLS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AS A RESULT OF A
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND WAS SUPPORTING LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 IN MANY RURAL
AREAS, AND AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSER TO -20F
ACROSS APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS, AND AS LOW AS
10 BELOW THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH
TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR -10F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN
-20F IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THIS THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (1-3") ON WEDNESDAY FEB 4 WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
CENTRAL PA DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN MOST PROBABLE AT BFD/JST THROUGH 01/00Z
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, RESPECTIVELY. SOME PERIODS
OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE (~30-40%) AT JST BETWEEN 09-12Z SATURDAY,
THUS HAVE OUTLINED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PACKAGE BUT HONED
IN ON TIMES WHERE THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE. BORDERLINE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE OVER UNV AND IPT AS A LOWERING CLOUD DECK CREEPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BASED ON RECENT HREF MODEL
GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME HIGH- LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST, GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
COUPLED WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE CLEARING OUT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HREF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE SOME CLOUD THICKENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PACKAGE, THUS HAVE OUTLINED LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND
INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SNOW STAYS SE OF THE AREA, LESS THAN 10% SNOW AT LNS. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
TUE...SNOW ACROSS N/W PA LATE, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED...SNOW CONTINUES OVERSPREADING THE AREA, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD-CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT
JANUARY:
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPS
MDT: 13 IN 1934
IPT: 12 IN 1934
AOO: 11 IN 1966
BFD: -1 IN 1977
STC: 12 IN 1977
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31)
FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-
033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ025-
026-028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT/NPB
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...NPB/BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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