716
FXUS61 KCTP 311955
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA
* AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA (EXCEPT FOR WARREN COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
THE PEAK OF THE COLD IS UPON US WITH RECORD CHALLENGING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (ACROSS THE SOUTH) AND AGAIN
TONIGHT/AM SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH
HAS ACTING AS A THIN BLANKET AND EFFECTIVELY ENDED THE THREAT
FOR WARNING/ADVISORY COLD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
WIND CHILLS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AS A RESULT OF A
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND WAS SUPPORTING LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 IN MANY RURAL
AREAS, AND AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSER TO -20F
ACROSS APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS, AND AS LOW AS
10 BELOW THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH
TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR -10F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN
-20F IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THIS THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (1-3") ON WEDNESDAY FEB 4 WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
CENTRAL PA DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT 18Z, MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS
(BFD/JST) AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS (AOO).
ELSEWHERE, LOW-END VFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED BENEATH A SHALLOW
STRATOCU DECK.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
WE SHOULD SEE CIGS DIP TO IFR ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS, HOLD
AT MVFR AT AOO, AND DIP BACK TO MVFR AT UNV AND IPT. THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL, IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND FOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
EXPECTED. CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS,
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION FROM
THE OFFSHORE STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT-WED AM...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD-CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO CLOSE OUT
JANUARY:
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPS
MDT: 13 IN 1934
IPT: 12 IN 1934
AOO: 11 IN 1966
BFD: -1 IN 1977
STC: 12 IN 1977
01/30 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1934
IPT: -6 IN 1948
AOO: -3 IN 2019
BFD: -14 IN 1965
STC: -10 IN 1977
01/31 DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS
MDT: 2 IN 1948
IPT: -14 IN 1948
AOO: -4 IN 2019
BFD: -13 IN 2019
STC: -9 IN 1948
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31)
FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT/NPB
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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