158
FXUS61 KCTP 312019
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXTREME COLD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOMERSET
COUNTY, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT
WARREN).
* MINOR CHANGES TO WIND GUSTS & WIND CHILL FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
3) STORM SYSTEM TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, REINFORCING COLD, AND
WINTRY WEATHER AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STORM BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
AMPLE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. THE
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH TEMPERATURES
FALL TONIGHT, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -10F
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN -20F IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THIS THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
WARREN COUNTY WAS LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (1-3") TUESDAY NIGHT FEB 3 INTO WEDNESDAY FEB 4
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS KEEPING CENTRAL PA DRY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
SNOW ARE SOUTH OF I-76 AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STORM SYSTEM TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, REINFORCING COLD, AND
WINTRY WEATHER AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A HIGH RISK FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY-SUNDAY) AND A MODERATE RISK OF
HIGH WINDS (SATURDAY-TUESDAY) ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. SINGLE DIGIT
(ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT 18Z, MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS
(BFD/JST) AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS (AOO).
ELSEWHERE, LOW-END VFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED BENEATH A SHALLOW
STRATOCU DECK.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
WE SHOULD SEE CIGS DIP TO IFR ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS, HOLD
AT MVFR AT AOO, AND DIP BACK TO MVFR AT UNV AND IPT. THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL, IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND FOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
EXPECTED. CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS,
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION FROM
THE OFFSHORE STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT-WED AM...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN
TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF/COLBERT/NPB
DISCUSSION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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