143
FXUS61 KCTP 010443
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO CAMBRIA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD ON SUNDAY
STRATUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD FROM LAKE ONTARIO HAS BLANKED MUCH
OF NORTH- AND WEST-CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THESE CLOUDS. HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE COASTAL
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL PA.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. THE
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY
COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THIS
THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR SOMERSET AND
CAMBRIA COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WARREN COUNTY
WAS LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (TRENDING DOWN IN AMOUNTS TO C-2") TUESDAY NIGHT
FEB 3 INTO WEDNESDAY FEB 4 WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING CENTRAL PA DRY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW ARE SOUTH
OF I-76 AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A HIGH RISK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY-
SUNDAY) AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILINGS AT BFD AND JST SHOULD DIP TO IFR OVERNIGHT, WHILE THEY
WILL LIKELY HOLD AT MVFR AT AOO. SOME GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE
HREF, SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF VFR CEILINGS AT
AOO BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP,
BUT WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, MVFR APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY REACH IPT AND UNV AS WELL.
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL RISE
TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION FROM THE OFFSHORE STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK, COLD
NORTH-NORHTWESTERLY FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES AT BFD AND
JST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY SNOW IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT-WED AM...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE HAS A VERY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THE SECOND LONGEST
RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAX TEMP <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN
TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF/COLBERT/NPB
DISCUSSION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
AVIATION...BAUCO/EVANEGO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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