818
FXUS61 KCTP 011826
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO CAMBRIA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED (MAINLY SOUTHERN
PA)
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WIND EXACERBATING THE COLD SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIMITED MOISTURE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GLAKES AND TRAPPED
BENEATH THE LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH TEMPS OCCUPYING THE
ENTIRE PRIME DGZ ZONE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF PA.
NW EDGE OF A HIGHER CLOUD DECK WAS EDGING INTO OUR FAR SE ZONES,
WHILE SKC TO SCT STRATUS OCCUPIED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY.
FOR TODAY, NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO A TIGHTENING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM EAST OF THE NC'S OUTER BANKS.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT TO
WHICH TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY TODAY, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE WIND
CHILL VALUES NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
GIVEN THIS THREAT, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WARREN COUNTY
REMAINS OUT OF THE ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
(TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED), MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
NBM/NBMV5 ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (TRENDING DOWN IN AMOUNTS TO C-2") TUESDAY NIGHT
FEB 3 INTO WEDNESDAY FEB 4 WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
STRIPE OF SNOW, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING CENTRAL PA DRY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW ARE SOUTH
OF I-76 AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A HIGH RISK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY-
SUNDAY) AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VFR LIKELY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE THROUGH 00Z MON AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF HREF/GLAMP MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 00Z MONDAY, GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM AT BFD/JST WHICH IS
MIRRORED RELATIVELY CLOSELY BY MOST RECENT HREF GUIDANCE. THERE
IS MODERATE (~50-60%) CONFIDENCE IN IFR-TO-LIFR CONDITIONS AT
BFD AFTER 06Z MON WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS DECK LIKELY TO
HANG ON FOR A MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON RAP/HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AT JST, SIMILAR TRENDS EXIST; HOWEVER, LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME BASED ON
RECENT RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LLWS
THRESHOLDS BEING MET ACROSS EASTERN AIRFIELDS (UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS)
BASED ON RECENT NAM/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OUT OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AND
THE IMPLICATION THAT THRESHOLDS BEING MET ARE MARGINAL. THE
TIMEFRAME OF LLWS THRESHOLDS BEING MET WILL GENERALLY FALL
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z MON, SO THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT WILL NEED TO
BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LIGHT SN ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE PM-WED AM...LIGHT SN POSSIBLE S PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA.
FRI...LIGHT SN OVERSPREADS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). BASED ON MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS STRING WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH THE MAX TEMP FCST TO
REACH THE LOW 20S. THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN
JANUARY 1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH.
IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7 DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN
TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017-018-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/COLBERT/NPB
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/COLBERT
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
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