071
FXUS61 KCTP 011923
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR CLEARFIELD, NORTHERN CENTRE,
CAMBRIA, AND SOMERSET COUNTY FROM 7PM SUNDAY THROUGH 10AM
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE MORE NIGHT OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
(MAINLY SOUTHERN PA)
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE NIGHT OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
WITH A BEAUTIFUL, SNOW-COVERED LANDSCAPE VISIBLE ON DAYTIME
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COASTAL STORM CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST
OF THE OUTER BANKS CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST, TAKING IT'S
CLOUD SHIELD WITH IT. BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIZABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT,
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS PUSHING 35 MPH.
DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS IN
THE LAURELS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW 20S IN THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST PA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LAURELS AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER COOLING TO SOME EXTENT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS IS WEST OF I-99 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80. AS SUCH, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM MONDAY FOR CLEARFIELD, NORTHERN CENTRE,
CAMBRIA, AND SOMERSET COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY GROUNDHOG DAY (MONDAY),
BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA. BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND ICE
THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WED (MAINLY SOUTHERN PA)
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, TUESDAY NIGHT FEB 3 INTO
WEDNESDAY FEB 4. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS (PERHAPS 2"+), WITH A
COATING TO 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE AT THIS POINT. WEAK FORCING AND A FAST FORWARD SPEED SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR NOTEWORTHY
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX (EFI), WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VFR LIKELY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE THROUGH 00Z MON AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF HREF/GLAMP MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 00Z MONDAY, GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM AT BFD/JST WHICH IS
MIRRORED RELATIVELY CLOSELY BY MOST RECENT HREF GUIDANCE. THERE
IS MODERATE (~50-60%) CONFIDENCE IN IFR-TO-LIFR CONDITIONS AT
BFD AFTER 06Z MON WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS DECK LIKELY TO
HANG ON FOR A MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON RAP/HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AT JST, SIMILAR TRENDS EXIST; HOWEVER, LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME BASED ON
RECENT RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LLWS
THRESHOLDS BEING MET ACROSS EASTERN AIRFIELDS (UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS)
BASED ON RECENT NAM/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OUT OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AND
THE IMPLICATION THAT THRESHOLDS BEING MET ARE MARGINAL. THE
TIMEFRAME OF LLWS THRESHOLDS BEING MET WILL GENERALLY FALL
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z MON, SO THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT WILL NEED TO
BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LIGHT SN ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE PM-WED AM...LIGHT SN POSSIBLE S PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA.
FRI...LIGHT SN OVERSPREADS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH. IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7
DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE.
JANUARY ENDED UP DRIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMMONWEALTH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT JANUARY 2025 WAS
COMPARABLE TO JANUARY 2026 IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (IT WAS ACTUALLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER LAST JANUARY AT HARRISBURG, STATE COLLEGE, AND
JOHNSTOWN COMPARED TO THIS YEAR).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017-018-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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