137
FXUS61 KCTP 021117
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE MORE MORNING OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WED (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA)
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE MORNING OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS. PRE DAWN
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PA TO THE LOWER AND
MID TEENS RESPECTIVELY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THIS GROUNDHOG DAY
(MONDAY), BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICICLES AND OTHER LARGE CHUNKS SNOW AND
ICE THAT MIGHT FALL OFF ROOFTOPS AS WINDS PICK UP TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NORTH/SOUTH LLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER THE WESTERN MTNS OF
PA LATE TODAY AND REACH FAR EASTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS RIDE
AXIS WITHIN THE 270-280K THETA CHANNEL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
LAYERED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS AND THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
AND MUCH OF EASTERN PA. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW KFT THICK LAYER
OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAT FLURRIES OR A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. A DUSTING OF SNOW
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE MOST ANYONE WILL SEE
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WED (MAINLY SOUTHERN PA)
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, TUESDAY NIGHT FEB 3 INTO
WEDNESDAY FEB 4. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS (PERHAPS 2"+), WITH A
COATING TO 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE AT THIS POINT. WEAK FORCING AND A FAST FORWARD SPEED SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR NOTEWORTHY
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB
ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX (EFI), WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A HANDFUL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER WESTERN PA CONTINUE TO BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO BFD AND JST DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.
THESE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND ONLY CAUSE MINOR ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE TIME OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE HAS
BEEN OUTLINED WITH PROB30S IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH BROKEN CLOUDS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LIGHT SN ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE PM-WED AM...LIGHT SN POSSIBLE S PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA.
FRI...LIGHT SN OVERSPREADS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH. IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7
DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE.
JANUARY ENDED UP DRIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMMONWEALTH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT JANUARY 2025 WAS
COMPARABLE TO JANUARY 2026 IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (IT WAS ACTUALLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER LAST JANUARY AT HARRISBURG, STATE COLLEGE, AND
JOHNSTOWN COMPARED TO THIS YEAR).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ017-
018-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page