288
FXUS61 KCTP 021722
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1222 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
* LOWER MIN TEMPS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER TONIGHT BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL.
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WED (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA).
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, LOW DEWPOINTS, LIMITED CLOUD COVER,
AND THE BIG FACTOR LOTS OF STILL FRESH SNOW COVER, SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER TEMPS THAN THE GUIDANCE HAS FOR TONIGHT.
I DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. MAV VALUES
FOR MDT AND LNS THAT JUST CAME IN (12Z RUN) LOOK TO BE 10
DEGREES TOO WARM, NOT SURE WHERE THE MODEL CAME UP WITH THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WED (MAINLY SOUTHERN PA).
WENT WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO WED, GIVEN WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A
FEW FLURRIES, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST.
ALSO A QUICK- HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM CLOUD BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, TUESDAY NIGHT FEB 3
INTO WEDNESDAY FEB 4. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS (PERHAPS 2"+), WITH
A COATING TO 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE AT THIS POINT. WEAK FORCING AND A FAST FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR
NOTEWORTHY SNOWFALL TOTALS. POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WOULD BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY WED AFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB
ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIKELY A BIT LIMITED, LAKES
HAVE A LOT OF ICE ON THEM, AND THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO
NORTHERLY AS WELL. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAYBE A BREAK BY MID FEBRUARY. GFS AND EC HAVE MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW, BUT THAT IS A WAYS OUT. WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, THIS IS OFTEN THE DECIDING FACTOR.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG
THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND IT, ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, REINFORCING
ARCTIC AIR, AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN
THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST
FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM, AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI), WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO)
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HANDFUL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER WESTERN PA CONTINUE TO BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO BFD AND JST DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.
THESE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND ONLY CAUSE MINOR ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE TIME OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE HAS
BEEN OUTLINED WITH PROB30S IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH BROKEN CLOUDS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LIGHT SN ACROSS N/W PA, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE PM-WED AM...LIGHT SN POSSIBLE S PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA.
FRI...LIGHT SN OVERSPREADS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH. IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7
DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE.
JANUARY ENDED UP DRIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMMONWEALTH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT JANUARY 2025 WAS
COMPARABLE TO JANUARY 2026 IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (IT WAS ACTUALLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER LAST JANUARY AT HARRISBURG, STATE COLLEGE, AND
JOHNSTOWN COMPARED TO THIS YEAR).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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