197
FXUS61 KCTP 031133
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
* LOWER MIN TEMPS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL
COLDER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
2) A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA, THEN A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
PA.
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AS OF 08Z TUESDAY.
THE MILD NIGHT RESULTING FROM THIS WIDESPREAD BLANKET OF LAYERED
CLOUD COVER (THAT ADVECTED EAST ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE NOSE
OF A WSW LLJ) ALLOWED FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH MIN TS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: 2) A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA, THEN A WEAK WAVE
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF PA.
BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SW
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING (MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA) WITH
VSBYS LIKELY NO LOWER THAN 3SM.
IN ADDITION, A QUICK- HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING BY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COULD BRING A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
OF PA, TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AT THIS POINT.
WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MAX AND A FAST FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR NOTEWORTHY SNOWFALL
TOTALS. POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BY WED AFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB
ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT,
ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND
STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM
SYSTEM, AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI), WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS COMING WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ARE FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
SNOWFALL BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED, SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE-COVERED, AND THE
FLOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO NORTHERLY. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAYBE A BREAK BY MID FEBRUARY. GFS AND EC HAVE MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW, BUT THAT IS A WAYS OUT. WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, THIS IS OFTEN THE DECIDING FACTOR.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WEST OF UNV. BFD, JST, AND AOO WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THOSE TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MID-LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS RISING
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD AND JST. WHILE
CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR CLOUDS WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING SKIES.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO BRING SOME
SNOW INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING THE EVENING TODAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW
GETS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT STAYING SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES, BUT
IT MAY GET CLOSE TO JST, MDT, AND LNS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE MENTION OF IT AS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF VISIBILITY REDUCING SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS LESS
THAN 30%.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED AM...LIGHT SN POSSIBLE S PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED PM-THU...LINGERING -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA.
FRI...LIGHT SN OVERSPREADS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
SAT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH. IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7
DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE.
JANUARY ENDED UP DRIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMMONWEALTH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT JANUARY 2025 WAS
COMPARABLE TO JANUARY 2026 IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (IT WAS ACTUALLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER LAST JANUARY AT HARRISBURG, STATE COLLEGE, AND
JOHNSTOWN COMPARED TO THIS YEAR).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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