300
FXUS61 KCTP 031845
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE OVERALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH
STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
2) ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE MD BORDER.
3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
4) MILDER DAYS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
STILL THINK A BIT OF SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. JUST STARTING TO
SEE BINOVC AS I TYPE THIS.
FOR FRIDAY, A BIT OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD EDGE TEMPS UP A BIT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PA.
CENTRAL PA LARGELY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO
WED. A WEAK SFC LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PA COULD BRING A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF PA, TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY
WED AFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT,
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SUB
ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT,
ENSURING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR, AND
STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM
SYSTEM, AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT LAKES.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI), WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS COMING WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT (ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO) TEMPERATURES AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ARE FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS MIGHT
BE NEEDED BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING, GIVEN THE
CURRENT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE FCST.
SNOWFALL BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED, SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE-COVERED, AND THE
FLOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO NORTHERLY. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 4: MAYBE A BREAK BY MID FEBRUARY. GFS AND EC HAVE
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW, BUT THAT IS A WAYS OUT. WITH SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THIS IS OFTEN THE DECIDING FACTOR.
AS WAS THE CASE ON MONDAY, MODELS STILL HOLDING ONTO A BIT OF A
MILDER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW AS ONE HEADS FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
THEN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE STRATUS. DRIER AIR WILL MIX IN MORE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THE SE HALF. UNV-AOO-IPT WILL LIKELY HOLD LOWER
CLOUDS, BUT NO PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND CONTINUES TO VEER
AND MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES FLOWS UPSLOPE. BFD/JST SHOULD SEE
BKN-OVC MVFR CONTINUE WITH IFR UNLIKELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT AT BFD. WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE DEEP-
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER JST-AOO TO GENERATE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
FLURRIES. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SNOW THERE AT THIS POINT. LNS AND
MDT WILL BE PLENTY DRY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO KEEP FLURRIES
AWAY. DRYING AND NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL DISSIPATE THE LOWER
CLOUDS ENTIRELY ON WED EXCEPT AT BFD, BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY, MAINLY SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSS NW, MAINLY AM.
FRI...SN, MAINLY LIGHT. NW: IFR (90% CHC), LIFR POSS (40% CHC).
SE: MVFR (80% CHC), IFR (40% CHC).
FRI PM...CFROPA SHSN WITH IFR LIKELY WEST & CENTRAL, SNSQ ALSO
POSS (30%), LIFR POSS (50%). SE: -SN ENDING.
SAT...SCT AM SHSN/MVFR BFD/JST. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
SUN...VFR.
CLIMATE
STATE COLLEGE TIED THE SECOND LONGEST RUN (7) OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH MAX TEMP STAYING <= 20F FOR THE PERIOD 1/25 THROUGH 1/31).
THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS POST-CHRISTMAS 2017 (12-28-2017
TO 01-03-2018). THE LONGEST RUN OF 10 DAYS OCCURRED IN JANUARY
1893 FROM THE 11TH-20TH. IT WILL BE A TOP 3 COLDEST LAST WEEK/7
DAYS OF JANUARY (MEAN TEMP 1/24-1/31) FOR STATE COLLEGE.
JANUARY ENDED UP DRIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMMONWEALTH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT JANUARY 2025 WAS
COMPARABLE TO JANUARY 2026 IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (IT WAS ACTUALLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER LAST JANUARY AT HARRISBURG, STATE COLLEGE, AND
JOHNSTOWN COMPARED TO THIS YEAR).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...DANGELO
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