223
FXUS61 KCTP 250625
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED NORTHERN CENTRE COUNTY TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
* EXTENDED END TIME OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7AM TO 9AM
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUICK-HITTING MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
2) INCREASED UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL
THURSDAY
3) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER -- BUT DOES MARCH
COME IN LIKE A LION WITH ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUICK-HITTING MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A QUICK-HITTING SHOT OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS INTO FAVORABLE DGZ TO PRODUCE
1-3" TOTALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH C-1" SOUTHEAST OF
I99/I80. BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY FALL
WITHIN A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AFTER 12Z WED
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE SNOW AND
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN SOME AREAS AND MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL/SCHOOL DELAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIP
POTENTIAL THURSDAY
OVERALL, THE 2/24 00Z & 12Z MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEARISH ON
THE MARGIN CONCERNING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY.
A SOUTHEASTWARD QPF SHIFT IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, NAM, AND
ECMWF IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH NBM QPF MATCHING
CLOSER WITH AIGFS AND WPC TO AIGEFS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY
TIED TO SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. POPS AND SNOWFALL WERE REDUCED VIA BASELINE FOUNDATIONAL
NBM WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE BEARISH TRENDS AND IMPLIES LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE
SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT REVERSES IN FUTURE CYCLES, BUT FOR NOW THE
SIGNAL IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER --
BUT DOES MARCH COME IN LIKE A LION WITH ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK?
REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP QUITE WELL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ON A NICE WARMING TREND.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S TO MID 50S RUNNING +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE.
BUT DOES MARCH COME IN LIKE A LION? UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING WINTER PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
PACIFIC ENERGY/MOISTURE CATCHES UP TO RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS OF 25/06Z, WITH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR PREVENTING SNOW ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS AT KBFD, WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 04Z-05Z AS A BAND OF SNOW BRIEFLY OVERCAME THE
DRY AIR, WITH A QUICK RECOVERY TO VFR AS THE BAND MOVED AWAY
FROM THE AIRPORT.
NEVERTHELESS, GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WEST-TO-EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, WITH SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE WESTERN
TERMINALS (BFD/JST/AOO/UNV/IPT) WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~60-80%)
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WAS TO DELAY
THE ONSET OF SNOW BY AN HOUR OR TWO, WHICH WAS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA & RECENT NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. KBFD AND KJST
STILL APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO SNOW, WITH THE NAM/RGEM SUGGESTING SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT REFUEL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER KBFD/KIPT, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, KJST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NAM/GFS SHOW ELEVATED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
VALUES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND NORTHERN TIER BETWEEN
18Z-06Z, SIGNALING AT THE CHANCE FOR MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
LATER TODAY. WHILE THE LATEST HRRR IS SPARSE WITH SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
(NAM/RGEM/WRFS) REFLECT THIS ENHANCED POTENTIAL, THOUGH TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
SOME LLWS CONCERNS REMAIN AT BFD/JST/AOO OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
AS A LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY AREA ACROSS SE PA
(MDT/LNS) WILL BE POSSIBLE (~30-40%), THOUGH MENTIONS IN THE TAF
WERE LEFT OUT DUE TO THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD. DIURNAL MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE CORE OF THE LLJ WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION
BY THAT TIME, WITH 15-25 KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...IFR RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
KBFD/KJST/KIPT, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
THU...LOW POTENTIAL (~20-30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ELSEWHERE, DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
FRI-SAT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PROBABLE.
SUN...LOW POTENTIAL (~30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA.
ELSEWHERE, DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ006-
012-018-037-041-042.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
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