810
FXUS61 KCTP 251538
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CANCELLED ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUICK-HITTING MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
2) INCREASED UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL
THURSDAY
3) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER -- BUT DOES MARCH
COME IN LIKE A LION WITH ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUICK-HITTING MINOR TO PLOWABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A QUICK-HITTING SHOT OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS INTO FAVORABLE DGZ TO PRODUCE
1-3" TOTALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH C-1" SOUTHEAST OF
I99/I80. BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY FALL
WITHIN A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AFTER 12Z WED
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE SNOW AND
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN SOME AREAS AND MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL/SCHOOL DELAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIP
POTENTIAL THURSDAY
OVERALL, THE 2/24 00Z & 12Z MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEARISH ON
THE MARGIN CONCERNING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY.
A SOUTHEASTWARD QPF SHIFT IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, NAM, AND
ECMWF IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH NBM QPF MATCHING
CLOSER WITH AIGFS AND WPC TO AIGEFS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY
TIED TO SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. POPS AND SNOWFALL WERE REDUCED VIA BASELINE FOUNDATIONAL
NBM WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE BEARISH TRENDS AND IMPLIES LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE
SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT REVERSES IN FUTURE CYCLES, BUT FOR NOW THE
SIGNAL IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER --
BUT DOES MARCH COME IN LIKE A LION WITH ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK?
REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP QUITE WELL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ON A NICE WARMING TREND.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S TO MID 50S RUNNING +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE.
BUT DOES MARCH COME IN LIKE A LION? UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING WINTER PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
PACIFIC ENERGY/MOISTURE CATCHES UP TO RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A ROUND OF SNOW THAT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS PRIMARILY FOR KJST AND KAOO OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SCATTER
AND IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT
REFUEL SNOW SHOWERS OVER KBFD BRINGING THE RETURN OF AT LEAST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SPOTTY SNOW
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AROUND KIPT, KJST AND KUNV, BUT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, THE NAM/GFS SHOW ELEVATED SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND NORTHERN
TIER BETWEEN 18Z-06Z, SIGNALING AT THE CHANCE FOR MORE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE BECOMING WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO EASE
LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW POTENTIAL (~20-30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ELSEWHERE, DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
FRI-SAT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PROBABLE.
SUN...LOW POTENTIAL (~30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA.
ELSEWHERE, DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS BINGHAMTON
KEY MESSAGES...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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