677
FXUS61 KCTP 260635
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW POTENTIAL (~20%) FOR A
GUSTY SNOW SHOWER FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SYSTEM TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA; MAY BRING
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL PA
2) END-OF-FEBRUARY WARM-UP BEFORE A SYSTEM BRINGS NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SYSTEM TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA; MAY
BRING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL PA
THOUGH STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH, A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG A FLAT TROUGH.
OVERALL LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN, WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
SOUTHERN CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN ARE VERY LOW, SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN
MODELED SOUNDINGS DON'T HAVE AN INDICATION OF A WARM NOSE WITHIN
A COLD PROFILE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WOULD BE IF PRECIPITATION
EVEN PUSHES THAT FAR NORTH AT ALL. MULTIPLE NEWER CAM RUNS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH OF THE PA-MD LINE. FOR NOW,
GENERAL LOW CHANCES WERE KEPT FOR ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: END-OF-FEBRUARY WARM-UP BEFORE A SYSTEM BRINGS
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
AREA
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING AN END-OF-
FEBRUARY WARM-UP TO THE AREA, THANKS TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH IN CANADA, WHICH WILL NOT HAVE IMPACT
TO THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE
HIGH-40S/LOW-50S FRIDAY AND THE LOW- TO MID-50S SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE OF PACE FROM WINTER AS A WHOLE, WHETHER
WELCOMED OR OTHERWISE, ONE THING TO BE MINDFUL OF WOULD BE THE
THERMAL IMPLICATIONS TO RIVER ICE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION- FREE UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING/SUNDAY.
THE WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE WEEKEND. WE START TO SEE BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE GOING OUT THIS FAR, WHERE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF SOME SHORTWAVES OFF OF THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MOST CONSISTENT ITEMS TO NOTE WITH
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ARE THE FEW SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING OFF OF THIS
TROUGH, ONE ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHTER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
WE RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHT TROUGH PATTERN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH, LIKELY TOWING ALONG LIGHTER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KBFD IS EXPECTED TO BOUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
12Z-14Z WITH LIGHT WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING AND
TAPPING INTO JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. AS WINDS
BECOME CALM AND THE FLOW ALOFT SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THE
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
THE REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER OR A FEW FLURRIES AROUND KLNS AND KMDT FROM 17Z-22Z,
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THUR. NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRI-SAT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PROBABLE. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT. NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR
MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT KJST, KAOO, KMDT AND KLNS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS BINGHAMTON
KEY MESSAGES...NWS BINGHAMTON
DISCUSSION...NWS BINGHAMTON
AVIATION...NWS BINGHAMTON
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