487
FXUS61 KCTP 261152
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MAY BRING ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER
2) END-OF-FEBRUARY WARM-UP BEFORE A SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY
3) KEEPING AN EYE ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
WILL BOTH BE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~20-30%)
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER UP TO
ABOUT I-81/I-78 CORRIDOR, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 17-22Z. WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THERE IS
ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT THAT CAN LEAD TO ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WET SNOW TO AT LEAST MIX IN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY RANGE FROM THE
LOW AND MID 30S TO THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING
AN END-OF-FEBRUARY WARM-UP AND A TASTE OF SPRING TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S (A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH). HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S WITH SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN MAKING A RUN AT 60 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA AND WITH A COLD, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AREA DROPPING IN FROM THE NW OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA, COLDER AIR
WILL BE MAKING A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY FEATURES A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE 20S TO THE NORTH TO THE LOW 40S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3:
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE MONITORED HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A
SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY. WITH THE FRESH INJECTION OF COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY
FROM AROUND I-80 ON SOUTH. ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
GRADUALLY RETREATING DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS AROUND KBFD ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS LOCATION.
THE REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE 12Z TAF FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING COURTESY OF A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR A FEW FLURRIES AROUND KLNS AND KMDT
FROM 17Z-22Z, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH CALM
WINDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT KLNS AND KMDT. AS A RESULT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN THESE AREAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
OUTLOOK...
THUR. NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRI-SAT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PROBABLE. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT. NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT KJST, KAOO, KMDT AND KLNS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS BINGHAMTON
KEY MESSAGES...NWS BINGHAMTON
DISCUSSION...NWS BINGHAMTON
AVIATION...NWS BINGHAMTON
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