248
FXUS61 KCTP 261910
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
2) WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US IS ROTATING EASTWARD
TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC TRACKS EAST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPS LAKE
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS THE WEAK RIDGE IN
BETWEEN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS 0 TO +2 DEG C...ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
RELATIVE WARMTH WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH SAT
NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE (30-50 PCT) OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL PA. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES WITH THE
WAVE PATTERN TO THE SOUTH THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A COUPLE WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE
CENTRAL US AND ATTEMPT TO BRUSH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE COLD
AIR MASS DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL EPISODES OF
RAIN/SNOW, BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTH- SOUTH EXTENT OF THESE WAVES. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING WARMER BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING
RAIN (RATHER THAN SNOW) TO THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT AS THIS COULD PROVE
IMPACTFUL TO THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF ICE JAMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH. THE CHANCES FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AROUND KLNS AND
KMDT HAVE DECREASED, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
VERY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH CALM WINDS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AT KLNS AND KMDT. SO, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PROBABLE. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT. NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT KJST, KAOO, KMDT AND KLNS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS BINGHAMTON
KEY MESSAGES...NWS BINGHAMTON
DISCUSSION...NWS BINGHAMTON
AVIATION...NWS BINGHAMTON
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