933
FXUS61 KCTP 270739
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
2) WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US IS ROTATING EASTWARD
TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC TRACKS EAST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPS LAKE
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS THE WEAK RIDGE IN
BETWEEN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS 0 TO +2 DEG C...ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
RELATIVE WARMTH WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH SAT
NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE (30-50 PCT) OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL PA. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES WITH THE
WAVE PATTERN TO THE SOUTH THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A COUPLE WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE
CENTRAL US AND ATTEMPT TO BRUSH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE COLD
AIR MASS DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL EPISODES OF
RAIN/SNOW, BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTH- SOUTH EXTENT OF THESE WAVES. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING WARMER BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING
RAIN (RATHER THAN SNOW) TO THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT AS THIS COULD PROVE
IMPACTFUL TO THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF ICE JAMS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR CEILINGS WERE ADDED TO KJST FROM 08Z FRIDAY TO 17Z FRIDAY
AS LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER FAVORABLE RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WITH NEIGHBORING SITES (KLBE, K2G9) REFLECTING THIS
TREND IN LOWERING CEILINGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME SUN MIXES OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 17-18Z. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPING AT
KMDT AROUND 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THERE SHOULD BE QUICK TO
MIX OUT IN THE MORNING, GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT + VERY FEW CLOUDS.
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN PA, WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 15-20 KTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PA.
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH, THOUGH PREVAILING DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A CHANCE FOR BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY AT KBFD, WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, A MENTION OF LLWS WAS ADDED TO
KBFD AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ APPROACHES THE
AIRPORT DURING THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...TEARE
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