352
FXUS61 KCTP 270837
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
2) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION.
3) WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY
DROP TO AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN FOG, CREATING
RAPIDLY CHANGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY, PROVIDING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE HIGH EXITING TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN TIER, THOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATION.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE TO START THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION
LARGELY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING WARMER
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR CEILINGS WERE ADDED TO KJST FROM 08Z FRIDAY TO 17Z FRIDAY
AS LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH NEIGHBORING SITES (KLBE, K2G9)
REFLECTING THIS TREND IN LOWERING CEILINGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME SUN MIXES
OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17-18Z. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPING
AT KMDT AROUND 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THERE SHOULD BE QUICK
TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING, GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT + VERY FEW
CLOUDS.
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN PA, WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 15-20 KTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PA.
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH, THOUGH PREVAILING DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A CHANCE FOR BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY AT KBFD, WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, A MENTION OF LLWS WAS ADDED TO
KBFD AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ APPROACHES THE
AIRPORT DURING THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...MARTIN/BAUCO
AVIATION...TEARE
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