793
FXUS61 KCTP 271217
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
2) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION.
3) WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY
DROP TO AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN FOG, CREATING
RAPIDLY CHANGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY, PROVIDING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE HIGH EXITING TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN TIER, THOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATION.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE TO START THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION
LARGELY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING WARMER
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE TO
BRING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES THIS MORNING, WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
DAYTIME SUN MIXES OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STATEWIDE VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN PA, WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY TO 15-20 KTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PA.
OVERNIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER KBFD FROM 06Z-12Z
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE & DISTANCE FROM THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PREVENT THESE SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS FROM FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE NAM, HREF, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE HRRR, ARE SIGNALING
AT FOG DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
OUTCOME APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LIGHT WINDS, FEW CLOUDS,
AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THAT REGION. AS A RESULT, VCFG WAS MENTIONED
FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARDS ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT FOR KBFD,
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND S/SW WINDS ABOVE 5 KTS COULD
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AROUND KMDT AND KLNS.
OTHERWISE, LLWS IS MENTIONED AT KBFD FROM 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE AIRPORT DURING THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...MARTIN/BAUCO
AVIATION...TEARE
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