919
FXUS61 KCTP 280618
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
118 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* REDUCED SNOWFALL FORECAST EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
* WINTRY MIX FOCUS SHIFTING TO TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026
2) QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
3) WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026
MILD AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS FOR LATE FEBRUARY. EXPECT AN EVEN
WARMER END TO THE MONTH/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME SITES TOUCHING 60F EAST OF THE MTNS ALONG THE MD LINE.
GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE BULLISH ENOUGH ON HOW WARM IT COULD GET.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT COULD FOSTER RADIATIONAL FOG/ZF IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND HIRES MODEL SIGNAL WOULD FAVOR
THE LSV.
KEY MESSAGE 2: QUICK SHOTS OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NW MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND AND MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE CUT IN HALF IN THE LATEST CYCLE WITH
MAX AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR SO NEAR/ALONG THE US-6 CORRIDOR
WITH A COATING TO <1" AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH
MARCH COMES IN MORE LIKE A LION VS. LAMB, BUT JUST A SHORT
WINTRY ROAR BEFORE SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
NOW PROVIDES A CHILLY AN DRY DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SETUP FAVORS
CAD/OVERRUNNING WINTRY MIX SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH/EAST INTO RETREATING COLD SECTOR. DESPITE ITS
MAGNITUDE 1040MB, THE HIGH APPEARS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WHICH
SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE WINTRY MIX TO RAIN PTYPE TRANSITION FROM
SW TO NE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL LIKELY SHIFT AROUND, BUT THE MAIN THEMES FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH WILL BE INCREASINGLY
MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. A SIZABLE AND SPRINGLIKE WARMING
TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STAYING POWER BASED ON THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
CPC TEMP OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE COULD (50%) BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD BETWEEN 09-13Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION (AOO TO UNV) AND SOUTHEAST PA (MDT AND LNS). STILL
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL ANY RESTRICTIONS, BUT MAY NEED
TO REDUCE CIGS/VIS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LLWS STILL
MENTIONED AT BFD AND JST IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE DROPPED THOSE MENTIONS AFTER 12/13Z. DID
NOT MENTION LLWS AT KIPT FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE THE GUSTY SRLY
WIND IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT OVER THE RIDGE AND MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. IF (40%) THE WIND DECOUPLES, WE'LL START TO MENTION IT
- BUT IT SHOULD ONLY BE A CONCERN UNTIL 14Z AT THE LATEST WHEN
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT COMES ALONG THERE. THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO FLY WITH A LIGHT, VEERING WIND FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BFD MAY HOLD ONTO AN MVFR CIG UNTIL MID-DAY, BUT NO
IFR CIGS IN STORE.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE COMES LATER SAT NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IT COULD (30-50%) PRODUCE
IFR CIGS LATER SAT NIGHT. WE'VE STARTED TO HINT AT SOME LOWER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FOR THE TAIL END OF THIS 06Z PACKAGE. THE
FIRST PLACE THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PRECIP WOULD BE BFD JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LOCAL (010500Z), AND IF IT GETS BRIEFLY HEAVY, IT COULD
(40%) BECOME IFR, BUT NOT (10%) LIFR. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED N OF I-80, AND THE CHILLY LOWER CLOUD DECK ELSEWHERE
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME DE-ICING BEING NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW NORTH & FOG SOUTHEAST EARLY.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
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