050
FXUS61 KCTP 281731
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1231 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE CHANGE IN THE COATING TO ~1 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026.
2) LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
3) WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN STORE TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER.
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES REGION TO THE GREATER PITTSBURGH AREA AT LUNCHTIME TODAY.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY DAY WITH A MODERATE SW BREEZE,
SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH THE CFROPA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 (AND EVEN
MORESO ACROSS ELEVATIONS AOA 1500 FT MSL, THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD (GENERALLY A COATING TO LESS
THAN 2 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AREAS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE SATURATION REACH INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPES. A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH
OF THE TURNPIKE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH
MARCH COMES IN MORE LIKE A LION VS. LAMB, BUT JUST A SHORT
WINTRY ROAR BEFORE SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
NOW PROVIDES A CHILLY AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SETUP FAVORS
CAD/OVERRUNNING WINTRY MIX SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH/EAST INTO RETREATING COLD SECTOR. DESPITE ITS
MAGNITUDE 1040MB, THE HIGH APPEARS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WHICH
SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE WINTRY MIX TO RAIN PTYPE TRANSITION FROM
SW TO NE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL LIKELY SHIFT AROUND, BUT THE MAIN THEMES FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH WILL BE INCREASINGLY
MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. A SIZABLE AND SPRINGLIKE WARMING
TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STAYING POWER BASED ON THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
CPC TEMP OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KBFD WHERE A SHALLOW STRATUS
DECK MAY DEVELOP/ADVECT SE AFTER 21Z SAT.
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS, A FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL BE VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NW THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWEST BREEZE, GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL ADD A
BIT OF CHOP TO TAKEOFF AND FAP.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, MOVING
EASTWARD. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INITIALLY CLEAR/PC
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 20S N OR I-80, AND
PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS AT BFD. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE IFR CIG/VISBY LATER SAT NIGHT, MAINLY AT
JST AND BFD (50%) WITH LESSER CHANCES (30-40%) FOR IFR AT
MDT/LNS AND EVEN LOWER (20-30%) FOR UNV/AOO/IPT. LIFR IS
POSSIBLE (30%) AT BFD WHEN SNOWING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED N OF I-80, AND THE CHILLY LOW STRATUS DECK ELSEWHERE
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME DE-ICING BEING NECESSARY.
PRECIP SLIDES EAST AND TAPERS OFF THRU THE MORNING ON SUN. BY
18Z, ONLY FLURRIES (NW THIRD) OR DRIZZLE (MDT/LNS) WILL BE LEFT,
AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON FRESHENING NW WIND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/JUREWICZ/DANGELO
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