637
FXUS61 KCTP 281936
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
236 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE CHANGE IN THE COATING TO ~1 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026.
2) LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
3) WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD AFTERNOON TODAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
MONTH OF FEB, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO LOW 60S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF PA.
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SCENT PA AS OF 19Z, AND DEEPER/COLDER AIR IS LAGGING THIS
SFC BOUNDARY BY SEVERAL HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (LINKED TO A PERIOD OF MESO-B SCALE
UVVEL BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 (AND FOCUSED AT ELEVATIONS AOA 1500 FT MSL), WHERE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE SATURATION REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(THAT WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE TOP OF THE CLOUDY LAYER - NEAR
AND ABOVE 10 KFT AGL), POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
SOME LIGHT SLEET SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER TYPES. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE, THOUGH THE VERY MILD
GROUND TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DOESN'T PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR
THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH
MARCH COMES IN MORE LIKE A LION VS. LAMB, BUT JUST A SHORT
WINTRY ROAR BEFORE SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
NOW PROVIDES A CHILLY AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SETUP FAVORS
CAD/OVERRUNNING WINTRY MIX SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH/EAST INTO RETREATING COLD SECTOR. DESPITE ITS
MAGNITUDE 1040MB, THE HIGH APPEARS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WHICH
SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE WINTRY MIX TO RAIN PTYPE TRANSITION FROM
SW TO NE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL LIKELY SHIFT AROUND, BUT THE MAIN THEMES FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH WILL BE INCREASINGLY
MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. A SIZABLE AND SPRINGLIKE WARMING
TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STAYING POWER BASED ON THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
CPC TEMP OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KBFD WHERE A SHALLOW STRATUS
DECK MAY DEVELOP/ADVECT SE AFTER 21Z SAT.
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY, A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZE
STILL EXISTS BUT WILL BE VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NW DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A
MODERATE WEST- NORTHWEST BREEZE, GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WILL ADD A BIT OF CHOP TO TAKEOFF AND FAP, ESPECIALLY AT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, MOVING
EASTWARD.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INITIALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 20S N OR I-80, AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS AT BFD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE IFR CIG/VISBY LATER SAT NIGHT, MAINLY AT JST AND BFD
(50%) WITH LESSER CHANCES (30-40%) FOR IFR AT MDT/LNS AND EVEN
LOWER (20-30%) FOR UNV/AOO/IPT. LIFR IS POSSIBLE (30%) AT BFD
WHEN SNOWING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED N OF I-80, AND THE
CHILLY LOW STRATUS DECK ELSEWHERE MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME DE-ICING
BEING NECESSARY.
PRECIP SLIDES EAST AND TAPERS OFF THRU THE MORNING ON SUN. BY
18Z, ONLY FLURRIES (NW THIRD) OR DRIZZLE (MDT/LNS) WILL BE LEFT,
AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON FRESHENING NW WIND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page