402
FXUS61 KCTP 010547
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE CHANGE IN THE COATING TO ~1 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026.
2) LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
3) WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD END TO FEBRUARY/METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2025-2026
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD AFTERNOON TODAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
MONTH OF FEB, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO LOW 60S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF PA.
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SCENT PA AS OF 19Z, AND DEEPER/COLDER AIR IS LAGGING THIS
SFC BOUNDARY BY SEVERAL HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (LINKED TO A PERIOD OF MESO-B SCALE
UVVEL BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 (AND FOCUSED AT ELEVATIONS AOA 1500 FT MSL), WHERE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE SATURATION REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(THAT WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE TOP OF THE CLOUDY LAYER - NEAR
AND ABOVE 10 KFT AGL), POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
SOME LIGHT SLEET SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER TYPES. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE, THOUGH THE VERY MILD
GROUND TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DOESN'T PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR
THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTRY MIX LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH
MARCH COMES IN MORE LIKE A LION VS. LAMB, BUT JUST A SHORT
WINTRY ROAR BEFORE SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
NOW PROVIDES A CHILLY AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SETUP FAVORS
CAD/OVERRUNNING WINTRY MIX SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH/EAST INTO RETREATING COLD SECTOR. DESPITE ITS
MAGNITUDE 1040MB, THE HIGH APPEARS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WHICH
SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE WINTRY MIX TO RAIN PTYPE TRANSITION FROM
SW TO NE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL LIKELY SHIFT AROUND, BUT THE MAIN THEMES FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH WILL BE INCREASINGLY
MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. A SIZABLE AND SPRINGLIKE WARMING
TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STAYING POWER BASED ON THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
CPC TEMP OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHWEST PA AND WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY AT BFD IN
SNOW, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT OTHER
SITES IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE FACT THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP FALLS, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
BFD, JST, AOO, UNV, AND POSSIBLY IPT AS THE SNOW PUSHES EAST.
SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA AFTER 16Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z NEAR BFD, BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD LIMIT THEIR EXTENT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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