341
FXUS61 KCTP 011137
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* PRECIP ARRIVAL PUSHED LATER MON NIGHT; MAYBE EVEN DRY MOST OF
THE NIGHT
* FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR ALL THE AREA TUES
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
TUESDAY
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WED ONWARD
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY TUESDAY
LARGE 1040HPA HIGH PRESSURE DOME SLIDES OVER THE NERN US
MONDAY, PRESSING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE W-E FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE MONDAY, BUT
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE DOME. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO GET
RIGHT UP TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON MONDAY, AND BUBBLE NORTH
INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SMALL PATCH
OF --SN SLIDE THRU THE LAURELS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS ON MONDAY.
BUT, THERE IS A NEAR-CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET
TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER ON THESE LATEST RUNS. NAM HAVING
TROUBLES STAYING WITH THE PACK; AS IT IS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP
UP WELL NORTH/FASTER THEN ANY OTHER MODEL ON MON NIGHT. WE'LL
FOLLOW WITH THE BIGGER GROUP FOR NOW, AND EXPECT PRECIP TO
ARRIVE IN THE S AROUND SUNRISE TUES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING AT THAT TIME IN THE S AND A FEW DEGS COLDER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WHILE CURRENT WIND DIR
PROGS HAVE IT MAINLY SRLY ON TUESDAY, THE BIG HIGH MAY KEEP THE
DRY/COOLER AIR WEDGED UP AGAINST THE MTNS, AND KEEP THE WIND
LIGHT AND MORE FROM THE E/SE. THAT WOULD RESULT IN COLD AIR
DAMMING AND RAISE THE RISK OF TEMPS STAYING BELOW FREEZING
LONGER INTO THE DAY, ESP FOR THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WITH THE
STRONG WAA ALOFT, THE LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL
LIQUID FAIRLY QUICKLY (BEFORE NOON) IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA,
WITH THE REST OF THE CWA BECOMING ALL LIQUID BY 21Z. WITH THE
SFC TEMPS COLD TO START, THERE IS A 3-6HR WINDOW OF POSSIBLE ZR
AND ICE ACCRETIONS. AGAIN, THE CURRENT QPF THRU NOON TUES IS
PRETTY LIGHT (0.10-0.20"). SO, ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (0.25" S, 0.50" N). AS IT LOOKS NOW, THIS
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVY FOR THE ZR, AND ALL OF THE
CWA IS AT RISK FOR A THIN GLAZE. BUT, AT THIS RANGE, WE'LL JUST
ADVERTISE IT HERE IN THE DISCUSSION. SFC TEMPS ARE THE MOST
CHALLENGING THING FOR THIS SITUATION, AND WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY THING TO BUST/CHANGE THE FORECAST. WITHOUT A HIGH
CERTAINTY IN THE TEMPS AND THE CHANGING TIMING OF THE PRECIP
ONSET, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DO MORE THAN JUST MENTION IT
HERE IN THE DISCUSSION AND IN THE HWO (WHICH WE HAVE BEEN FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS). IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL PLAIN RAIN BEFORE
SUNSET TUES, EVEN IN THE NE. THOSE AREAS THAT DO GET ICE IN THE
AM WON'T HAVE ANY LEFT IN THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE AND MELT IT.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WED ONWARD
BIG SFC HIGH PARKS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DIRECTS PLENTY OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP INTO THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE SLATED TO BE VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THE W-E
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BECOME PRETTY STATIONARY, BUT WAVY, OVER
THE CWA FOR THAT TIME FRAME, THOUGH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
SMALL SURGE OF COOLER AIR SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NE (BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT) FRIDAY-ISH. BUT, BY THEN, THE TEMPS WILL BE SO WARM
THAT NO THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP. IT SHOULD ALL BE
PLAIN RAIN. THE WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE PATHWAY FOR REPEATED SHOT
OF FORCING AND CONSISTENT LIFT. SO...IT SHOULD BE A WET TIME.
BUT, THAT'S NOT SO BAD, CONSIDERING SOME OF THE AREA IS STILL IN
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT BFD AND JST THIS MORNING AND MAY BRIEFLY
REACH AOO, UNV, AND IPT.
SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA AFTER 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z NEAR BFD AND IPT,
BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT
THEIR EXTENT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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