449
FXUS61 KCTP 011657
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE PERIOD OF LIGHT, MIXED PRECIP (TOTALING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.20 OF AN INCH) WILL BE FOCUSED LATER MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.
* POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR THE
NORTHCENTRAL MTNS AND WESTERN POCONOS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PERIODS OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WED ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COMPETE WITH THE INCREASING, EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO
GREATLY FLATTEN THE TYPICAL DAYTIME TEMP CURVE. EVEN WITH ALMOST
CLOUD FREE SKIES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
AN EXPANSIVE 1040 HPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOME SLIDES OVER THE
NERN US MONDAY, PRESSING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE W-E
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY, BUT WARM/MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE DOME. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO GET RIGHT UP TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON MONDAY, AND
BUBBLE NORTH INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
SMALL PATCH OF
--SN SLIDE THRU THE LAURELS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS ON MONDAY.
BUT, THERE IS A NEAR-CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET TO
BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER ON THESE LATEST RUNS. NAM HAVING TROUBLES
STAYING WITH THE PACK; AS IT IS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP UP WELL
NORTH/FASTER THEN ANY OTHER MODEL ON MON NIGHT. WE'LL FOLLOW
WITH THE BIGGER GROUP FOR NOW, AND EXPECT PRECIP TO ARRIVE IN
THE S AROUND SUNRISE TUES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING
AT THAT TIME IN THE S AND A FEW DEGS COLDER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WHILE CURRENT WIND DIR PROGS HAVE
IT MAINLY SRLY ON TUESDAY, THE BIG HIGH MAY KEEP THE DRY/COOLER
AIR WEDGED UP AGAINST THE MTNS, AND KEEP THE WIND LIGHT AND MORE
FROM THE E/SE. THAT WOULD RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING AND RAISE
THE RISK OF TEMPS STAYING BELOW FREEZING LONGER INTO THE DAY,
ESP FOR THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG WAA ALOFT,
THE LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL LIQUID FAIRLY QUICKLY
(BEFORE NOON) IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA, WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA BECOMING ALL LIQUID BY 21Z. WITH THE SFC TEMPS COLD TO
START, THERE IS A 3-6HR WINDOW OF POSSIBLE ZR AND ICE
ACCRETIONS. AGAIN, THE CURRENT QPF THRU NOON TUES IS PRETTY
LIGHT (0.10-0.20"). SO, ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA (0.25" S, 0.50" N). AS IT LOOKS NOW, THIS COULD
EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVY FOR THE ZR, AND ALL OF THE CWA
IS AT RISK FOR A THIN GLAZE. BUT, AT THIS RANGE, WE'LL JUST
ADVERTISE IT HERE IN THE DISCUSSION. SFC TEMPS ARE THE MOST
CHALLENGING THING FOR THIS SITUATION, AND WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY THING TO BUST/CHANGE THE FORECAST. WITHOUT A HIGH
CERTAINTY IN THE TEMPS AND THE CHANGING TIMING OF THE PRECIP
ONSET, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DO MORE THAN JUST MENTION IT
HERE IN THE DISCUSSION AND IN THE HWO (WHICH WE HAVE BEEN FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS). IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL PLAIN RAIN BEFORE SUNSET
TUES, EVEN IN THE NE. THOSE AREAS THAT DO GET ICE IN THE AM
WON'T HAVE ANY LEFT IN THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE AND MELT IT.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WED ONWARD
AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FOR
WED-FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT A BIG SFC HIGH PARKED OFF THE EAST
COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL DIRECT PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NORTH AND INTO THE STATE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE SLATED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING IN TO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S IN SOME AREAS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BECOME PRETTY
STATIONARY, BUT WAVY, OVER THE CWA FOR THAT TIME FRAME, THOUGH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL SURGE OF COOLER AIR SLIDING
DOWN FROM THE NE (BACKDOOR COLD FRONT) FRIDAY-ISH. BUT, BY THEN,
THE TEMPS WILL BE SO WARM THAT NO THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIP. IT SHOULD ALL BE PLAIN RAIN. THE WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE
PATHWAY FOR REPEATED SHOT OF FORCING AND CONSISTENT LIFT.
SO...IT SHOULD BE A WET TIME. BUT, THAT'S NOT SO BAD,
CONSIDERING SOME OF THE AREA IS STILL IN DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY, COLD LLVL ADVECTION WILL ERODE MOST OR ALL OF THE
REMAINING SHALLOW STRATOCU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MEANS VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF
MONDAY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z NEAR BFD
AND IPT, BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
LIMIT THEIR EXTENT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING NORTHERLY WIND THIS
EVENING WILL VEER TO LIGHT EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND TUES
NIGHT.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
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