037
FXUS61 KCTP 020539
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1239 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS AND QPF/ICE ACCUM ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE PERIOD OF LIGHT, MIXED PRECIP
(TOTALING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.20 OF AN INCH) THAT WILL BE
FOCUSED LATER MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
* POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR THE
NORTHCENTRAL MTNS AND WESTERN POCONOS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PERIODS OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WED ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COMPETE WITH THE INCREASING, EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO
GREATLY FLATTEN THE TYPICAL DAYTIME TEMP CURVE. EVEN WITH ALMOST
CLOUD FREE SKIES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
AN EXPANSIVE 1040 HPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOME SLIDES OVER THE
NERN US MONDAY, PRESSING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE W-E
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY, BUT WARM/MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE DOME. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO GET RIGHT UP TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON MONDAY, AND
BUBBLE NORTH INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL PATCH OF --SN SLIDE THRU THE LAURELS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS ON MONDAY PER THE LATEST HREF. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FALL WOULD BARELY BE ENOUGH TO DUST THE GROUND.
NAM HAVING TROUBLES STAYING WITH THE PACK; AS IT IS BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP UP WELL NORTH/FASTER THEN ANY OTHER MODEL ON MON
NIGHT. WE'LL FOLLOW WITH THE BIGGER GROUP FOR NOW, AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO ARRIVE IN THE S BETWEEN 06-09Z TUESDAY AND AROUND
SUNRISE TUES ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THAT TIME IN THE S AND
A FEW DEGS COLDER OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA (WHERE MAX WET BULBS ALOFT SHOULD ONLY BE +1-2C AND IN QUITE
A SHALLOW LAYER A FEW TO SVRL KFT AGL) AND A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET AND EVEN BRIEFER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
WHILE CURRENT WIND DIR PROGS HAVE IT MAINLY SRLY ON TUESDAY,
THE BIG HIGH MAY KEEP THE DRY/COOLER AIR WEDGED UP AGAINST THE
MTNS, AND KEEP THE WIND LIGHT AND MORE FROM THE E/SE. THAT WOULD
RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING AND RAISE THE RISK OF TEMPS STAYING
BELOW FREEZING LONGER INTO THE DAY, ESP FOR THE NERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG WAA ALOFT, THE LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP WILL
TURN TO ALL LIQUID FAIRLY QUICKLY (BEFORE NOON) IN THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA BECOMING ALL LIQUID BY 21Z.
WITH THE SFC TEMPS COLD TO START, THERE IS A 3-6HR WINDOW OF
POSSIBLE ZR AND ICE ACCRETIONS. AGAIN, THE CURRENT QPF THRU NOON
TUES IS PRETTY LIGHT (0.10-0.20"). SO, ANY ICE ACCRETIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (0.25" S, 0.50" N). AS IT LOOKS
NOW, THIS COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVY FOR THE ZR, AND
ALL OF THE CWA IS AT RISK FOR A THIN GLAZE. BUT, AT THIS RANGE,
WE'LL JUST ADVERTISE IT HERE IN THE DISCUSSION. SFC TEMPS ARE
THE MOST CHALLENGING THING FOR THIS SITUATION, AND WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY THING TO BUST/CHANGE THE FORECAST. WITHOUT A HIGH
CERTAINTY IN THE TEMPS AND THE CHANGING TIMING OF THE PRECIP
ONSET, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DO MORE THAN JUST MENTION IT
HERE IN THE DISCUSSION AND IN THE HWO (WHICH WE HAVE BEEN FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS). IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL PLAIN RAIN BEFORE SUNSET
TUES, EVEN IN THE NE. THOSE AREAS THAT DO GET ICE IN THE AM
WON'T HAVE ANY LEFT IN THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE AND MELT IT.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WED ONWARD
AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FOR
WED-FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT A BIG SFC HIGH PARKED OFF THE EAST
COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL DIRECT PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NORTH AND INTO THE STATE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE SLATED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING IN TO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S IN SOME AREAS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BECOME PRETTY
STATIONARY, BUT WAVY, OVER THE CWA FOR THAT TIME FRAME, THOUGH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL SURGE OF COOLER AIR SLIDING
DOWN FROM THE NE (BACKDOOR COLD FRONT) FRIDAY-ISH. BUT, BY THEN,
THE TEMPS WILL BE SO WARM THAT NO THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIP. IT SHOULD ALL BE PLAIN RAIN. THE WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE
PATHWAY FOR REPEATED SHOT OF FORCING AND CONSISTENT LIFT.
SO...IT SHOULD BE A WET TIME. BUT, THAT'S NOT SO BAD,
CONSIDERING SOME OF THE AREA IS STILL IN DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. A FEW FLURRIES COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING THE
MORNING, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER IN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
AT JST AND AOO BY 20Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO ENTER PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND
WILL REACH MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WHICH WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND ROUND OF LLWS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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