192
FXUS61 KCTP 022010
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING
2 NW COUNTIES (WARREN AND MCKEAN) AND INCLUDE THEM IN THE 12Z
TO 18Z GROUP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WED ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE ONE WINTER WEATHER HURDLE TO NAVIGATE BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT (SW PA/LAUREL HIGHLANDS) AND DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING TUESDAY (ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQ
VALLEY). THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A SURGE OF MOISTURE BEING
LIFTED OVER THE COLDER/SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE
OVER OUR REGION. A FEW TO SEVERAL THOUSAND FT THICK LAYER OF
SLIGHTLY "ABOVE" FREEZING AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
ANYWHERE FROM 2-7 KFT AGL WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE SUSQ VALLEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL TUESDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO BETWEEN
33 AND 35 DEG F BY NOON TUESDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AIR HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10 OF AN INCH OR
LESS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL PA WHERE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA, AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WE WON'T SEE ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS (EVEN
AT NIGHT) UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WED ONWARD
AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FOR
WED-FRI WILL SUPPORT A BIG SFC HIGH PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST.
THESE FEATURES WILL DIRECT PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT NORTH AND INTO THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE SLATED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING IN TO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S IN SOME AREAS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BECOME PRETTY
STATIONARY AROUND OUR LATITUDE, BUT WILL BE WAVY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL SURGE OF COOLER AIR SLIDING DOWN FROM THE
NE (BACKDOOR COLD FRONT) FRIDAY-ISH. BUT, BY THEN, THE TEMPS
WILL BE SO WARM THAT NO THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP. IT
SHOULD ALL BE PLAIN RAIN. OUR WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE PATHWAY
FOR REPEATED SHOTS OF FORCING AND CONSTANT LIFT. SO...IT SHOULD
BE A WET TIME. BUT, THAT'S NOT SO BAD, CONSIDERING SOME OF THE
AREA IS STILL IN DROUGHT.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS (NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST). FOR THE NORTH,
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD STAY AT JST AND
REDEVELOP/LOWER BY AROUND 1000 KFT OR MORE AT AOO BETWEEN 00-02Z
TUE. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATE
TONIGHT, LIKELY FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY 12Z
TUESDAY.
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JST, AOO, AND UNV AFTER 04Z
AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS,
LIKELY REACHING ALL TAF SITES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAY
INITIALLY MIX IN TO THE EAST OF UNV.
THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS, BUT WE WILL KEEP IT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
CRITERIA FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WHICH WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004-005-010>012-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ024-033>036-064.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...DANGELO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page